AUSTRALIA’S recovery from the pandemic recession is likely to be slow, St George chief economist says.
Ms Deda spoke this week at the Industry Insights Forum for Transport and Logistics, organised by the International Forwarders and Customs Brokers Association of Australia.
Ms Deda said the recovery was likely to “take a while” to return to pre-Christmas 2019 levels of growth and the data for the June quarter, when it came out, was likely to show the largest decline yet reported in the Australian context.
However she noted Australia still “looks better than other major economies”, albeit the impact of stage 4 restrictions in Victoria was likely to spill over into the economies of other states.
Ms Deda compared the pandemic recession with the Global Financial Crisis, noting China had been resilient during the GFC, whereas its economy had been hard hit this year.
However she also noted that China was coming out of the pandemic faster with a so-called U-shaped recovery.
In Australia, Ms Deda talked of the impact of the virus outside of the hotspots in Victoria and New South Wales.
“Even one infection can become a cluster,” she said.
“[The experience of] New Zealand has highlighted the difficulties of controlling this virus.”
Also addressing the forum with IFCBAA vice chairman and Cable International director Adam Butler and IFCBAA CEO Paul Damkjaer.
Mr Damkjaer noted how the virus had heightened trade tensions, the latest being the Australia-China wine stoush and how this was likely to encourage some businesses to source manufacturing from other nations in the Asia-Pacific.