CARRIERS are resorting to almost meaningless inbound rate restoration attempts in a move watchers say means the situation has reached an “any little bit helps” situation.
Interestingly it is the South East Asia, Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East to Australia trade where ANL has announced a rate restoration of just USD 50/TEU for dry and reefer (100/FEU dry and reefer) rather than the China-Australia route where rates continue to slide week-by-week.
But both trades are, to varying extent, affected by Lunar New Year shutdowns and as one source put it, “there’s a lot of space to fill southbound and rates [from SE Asia] are already pretty sharp”.
ANL’s rate restoration applies from 1 March, but in contrast the carrier’s rate restoration from North & East Asia to Australia, also scheduled for 1 March, has been notified at USD 250/TEU and 500/FEU, while a rate restoration from North & East Asia to NZ seeks USD 300/TEU, 600/FEU.
On 15 March ANL has scheduled a second rate restoration from North & East Asia to Australia, this time at USD 300/TEU, 600/FEU.
It’s not as though ANL is going it alone. MSC has a 1 March rate restoration from North Asia to Australia of USD 300/TEU, and COSCO Shipping has southbound rate restorations of USD 500/TEU, 1,000/FEU for both the North Asia-Australia and South East Asia-Australia trades on the same date.
Average spot rates in the China-Australia trade are yet to show any post-Lunar New Year movement of significance: according to the SCFI, Shanghai-Sydney was available at USD 1,376/FEU in Week 8, down from 1,490/FEU in Week 7. A reminder, in Week 1 2026 the SCFI stood at USD 2,692/FEU.
China-based freight forwarders’ quotes, seen by DCN, are well below the SCFI from all mainland ports.
There remains more than adequate capacity in the southbound market, especially while MSC continues its Kangaroo service practice of positioning vessels to Port Botany to join its new Eagle service from ANZ to Central and East Coast North America.
Although this week sees only the fourth Eagle sailing loading in Australian ports, MSC has already began replacing previously-advised 2,500-2,800 TEU ships with 3,700-4,250 TEU units with higher reefer capacity, from Voyage 7, and in position 10 is the 8,010 TEU Greenvale with 1,500 reefer plugs – although it seems unlikely that will be a regular.
Responding to the raft of North & East Asia rate restorations, one contact suggested: “(They’re like) Dorothy repeating ‘there’s no place like home’. Maybe if they click their heels the rates will go back up?”