FEBRUARY was shaping up as another well-known chapter in the cyclical downturn of the shipping market: a market struggling with overcapacity, weakening carrier finances, and constantly shifting trade policies.
Maersk reported an ocean operating loss in Q4 2025 despite higher volumes. Schedule reliability worsened to its lowest point in more than a year. The industry entered 2026 under structural pressure, and it was evident. As we all arrived at the TPM conference, the expectation was that the pendulum and negotiation leverage were with the BCOs and forwarders. Then, on February 28, the frame changed entirely.
US/Israel strikes on Iran drove the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, not by order, but through commercial reality. War-risk premiums hit 3% of vessel value per voyage, making Gulf transit financially unviable. Every major carrier halted Gulf bookings within days.
MSC declared force majeure and end-of-voyage across all Arabian Gulf shipments, cargo discharged wherever the carrier deems safe, with the merchant liable for collection, onward movement, and an $800 USD surcharge for the privilege.
All shipping rates agreed prior to 28 February were effectively null and void. TPM26 was notably sombre; the shadow of a third Gulf War and the risk of regional escalation hung over the event. Carriers were visibly recalibrating.
Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime offered the most grounded read: Hormuz is a real problem, but not a pandemic-scale one.
Unlike the Houthi Red Sea disruptions, this crisis is geographically contained, primarily Gulf-destined cargo, with around two million TEU in the immediate firing line. The bigger near-term impact will be surcharges across every trade, not just Gulf routes. Jensen was blunt: even Asia-USWC shippers will feel it through knock-on congestion at Asian load ports.
This is not a Red Sea replay. When the Red Sea closed, Asia-Europe cargo had an alternative in the Cape of Good Hope. The Gulf has no bypass. The vessels caught inside stay there until the fighting stops. Trade into the region has halted. The Cape of Good Hope is now the routing baseline for the full year, and Suez normalisation is pushed back at least six months from any resolution, and most likely into 2027.
The cascading effects are spreading across all trades. The reefer dimension deserves specific attention for Australian exporters. The GCC imports over 80% of its food, the majority transiting the Strait. Perishable prices in Dubai spiked within days. CMA CGM suspended all reefer bookings to the region, with war-risk surcharges on refrigerated containers running USD $3,500–4,000 per unit.
For Australian food exporters, the watch item is global reefer capacity tightening, equipment availability and booking lead times will all be affected. Review your forward bookings and contingency options now. The Gulf also accounts for 16–18% of global seaborne fertiliser exports, a constraint that will eventually feed through to agricultural input costs here.
For customs brokers and freight forwarders, the legal and liability landscape requires immediate attention. Carrier liability for war-related loss is almost universally excluded under standard bills of lading and international conventions. Marine cargo insurance became an immediate concern once the Joint War Committee updated its war-risk zone classifications; policies can be cancelled with just seven days' notice.
As of early March, cargo owners had the greatest exposure, and those who hadn't already confirmed their insurance position were being urged to do so urgently. Forwarders should document all ETA caveats in writing, avoid verbal assurances, and review professional indemnity limits. The Trump administration’s announcement of a $20 billion maritime reinsurance facility signals that even Washington recognises the insurance failure, not just the security risk, as the critical constraint.
Beyond the immediate crisis, three structural developments will shape the year ahead. The Hapag-Lloyd acquisition of ZIM for $4.2 billion is the most consequential carrier consolidation since the pandemic. At TPM26, there was a lot of speculation that this concentration would accelerate as we go into a downcycle.
US trade policy remains in motion: IEEPA tariffs struck down, immediately replaced under Section 122, with 24 states mounting legal challenges. Every contracting conversation carries embedded policy uncertainty. And at TPM26, data quality and digital maturity were the lead technology topics, the industry’s recognition that AI is only as reliable as the data behind it.
WiseTech’s cutting one-third of its workforce while citing AI, and DSV’s move away from CargoWise, signal that the platform landscape is being reengineered at a very quick pace. Businesses that have not reviewed their technology dependencies should prioritise this.
The tide did not just shift in February; it broke. A structurally stressed market has been hit by a geopolitical shock with no clear resolution timeline in sight. The commercial and legal consequences are not approaching. They are here.
Adapt your course accordingly.