LATELY, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) has seen increased interest due to the ongoing trouble in West Asia and the war between Ukraine and Russia. So, what are the pros and cons?
First of all, the route is only navigable for a few months in the year, during the late Northern summer and even then, only with icebreaker assistance. So, there’s no likelihood of the NSR becoming a regular year-round alternative. However, with the advent of climate change the open season is likely to get longer.
Due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the increase in hostile attacks by the Houthis on shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab El-Mandeb, shippers have started to look at alternatives. Sanctions on ships carrying Russian oil and gas have also led to these vessels starting to use ’friendly waters’ to the north of Russia to carry cargoes to Asia, mainly China.
Recently, Russia dispatched a convoy of sanctioned oil tankers escorted by icebreakers, sending the fleet via the NSR, including the most northerly commercial shipping route ever attempted in the Arctic. The fleet is transporting crude oil from Arctic export terminals destined for Asian buyers. Russia has steadily expanded eastbound Arctic crude exports in recent years as it redirects energy shipments toward Asia following sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. The NSR reduces sailing distances between northern Russia and China by thousands of nautical miles compared with voyages through the Suez Canal, although navigation remains dependent on favourable ice conditions and support from Russia’s fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers.
Chinese operators are increasing the number of voyages using the NSR and expanding their network westward including Felixstowe, Hamburg and Rotterdam. Chinese operator NewNew Shipping has outlined its ambitions to expand its NSR offering to 20 voyages or more using larger ice-class container ships. Another operator, Sea Legend, is introducing what it describes as its first seasonal liner-type Arctic service, with eight weekly sailings from eastern China to Felixstowe, Hamburg and Rotterdam. Some of the later return voyages will most likely have to use the Suez Canal route as the NSR will become unnavigable due to increasing ice coverage.
More than 25 Chinese-operated bulk carriers, mainly Panamax and Kamsarmax vessels, are also scheduled to connect China with ports in northern Russia and the Baltic. South Korea is also conducting a container shipping trial voyage this summer with the intention to develop Busan into a major Arctic shipping hub.
An Arctic voyage from Shanghai to Rotterdam can cut roughly 3,000 nautical miles and 15 days from the route compared with using the Suez Canal route. If the vessels sail around southern Africa, the NSR can save roughly 6,500 nautical miles and 25 days compared with the longer route.
Shipping companies such as Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company, CMA CGM and Hapag Lloyd have publicly stated they will avoid the NSR. Their decisions stem from the route's risks, including difficulties with navigation due to ice, limited infrastructure, and potential harm to the fragile Arctic ecosystem. One of the main arguments is that, if an incident were to occur, there is limited availability of salvage equipment and oil spill equipment in the area, which, combined with the extreme cold environment makes it very difficult to clean up the subsequent pollution. Users of the NSR argue that it is good for the environment with ships emitting about 50% less GHG using the northern route as compared to using the Suez Canal.
Over the year, several incidents have already led to major environmental damage, and just recently a tanker suffered serious damage to its hull while navigating through Arctic sea ice, despite being assisted by an icebreaker. The vessel’s insurer, a sanctioned Russian insurance company, said the tanker sustained hull deformation while navigating through ice and stressed that icebreaker assistance does not eliminate the physical risks associated with Arctic navigation. The insurer did not disclose the name of the vessel, its owner, or the date and exact location of the incident. The NSR Administration has also stopped publishing vessel permits and daily operational logs publicly, making it more difficult to independently monitor accidents.
Climate change and a further warming of the Arctic will no doubt make it more attractive for less safety-conscious operators to start using the NSR for longer periods. Let’s hope military action In the Middle East and between Ukraine and Russia will end soon and shipping lines and cargo owners do not see the need to use these more dangerous and environmentally sensitive alternatives.