MARITIME security experts are urging ship operators to proceed with caution in the Red Sea, despite an apparent pause in attacks in the strife-torn part of the world.
The Iranian-backed Houthi militant group in Yemen is reported to have suspended attacks against shipping interests associated with Israel, as first reported by the Associated Press.
Since the Gaza ceasefire began on October 10, zero attacks have been claimed by the rebel group.
Analysis by Sea Intelligence for the Red Sea modelled quantitative effects on imports over a six-week period.
According to the analysis, the two primary impacts would be a significant release of global vessel capacity currently absorbed by longer voyages and a potentially disruptive surge in cargo arrivals into Europe.
Sea Intelligence chief executive Alan Murphy said the data accounted for roughly four additional vessels needed for every round trip required for affected services in the region.
“Our analysis does not predict when that re-opening might occur, considering that the Houthis have not yet declared a ceasefire, and that the lines did not switch back to the Suez routing during the last ceasefire,” he said.
“Instead, what we have done is calculate the quantitative effects, if shipping lines revert to a Suez routing.”
Shipping Australia spokesman Jim Wilson said it was too early to determine any impact upon Australia.
“In relation to shipping movements, the industry will most likely adopt a ‘wait and see’ posture to see how the security resolves over time,” Mr Wilson said.
“The disrupted situation has become somewhat normalised.”
The vast majority of Australia’s international dry bulk trade goes mostly to China and Northeast Asia, as do energy exports.
“There is only a relatively small percentage of our imports or exports that originate or are destined for Europe,” Mr Wilson said.
“The great majority of those can be diverted in container ships around the coast of southern Africa.”