PROMINENT Oceania dry bulk operator Pacific Basin Shipping has reported solid performance in an improving market in the third quarter of 2026 amidst high freight rates and resilient demand.
The Hong Kong-listed company revealed its core business generated average Handysize and Supramax daily TCE earnings of US$16,020 and US$17,990 net, representing an increase of 37% and 34% year-on-year respectively.
Dry bulk demand during the third quarter of 2026 continued to be influenced by disruption to grain and fertiliser trades. Black Sea wheat exports were constrained by the ongoing conflict, while fertiliser exports from the Arabian Gulf were significantly affected by restrictions on vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz.
While these disruptions reduced cargo availability, particularly for smaller bulk carriers, they also constrained effective vessel supply, contributing to altered trading patterns, longer voyages and tighter market conditions, PacBasin reported.
Seaborne dry bulk trade volumes continued to expand during the third quarter of 2026, supported by growth across several major and minor bulk commodities as China’s buying power rose with the strengthening Renminbi.
PacBasin outperformed the Handysize spot market index (BHSI tonnage-adjusted) by US$1,350 per day or 9%, while its supramax TCE [time charter equivalent] earnings were US$300 per day, or 2%, below the Supramax (BSI) spot market index, “primarily reflecting Atlantic–Pacific rate differentials and our deliberate backhaul positioning into the higher-paying Atlantic market ahead of the typically stronger fourth quarter.
For the fourth quarter of 2026, PacBasin currently has covered 65% and 76% of committed handysize and supramax core vessel days at US$16,480 and US$18,960 per day respectively (cargo cover excludes operating activity), while retaining exposure to the market through open vessel days in attractive positions, “giving us the opportunity to benefit from a seasonally stronger market in the remainder of the year.
“We have so far also covered 7% and 19% of committed Handysize and Supramax core vessel days in 2027 at around US$13,180 and US$15,590 per day respectively.”
Looking ahead, PacBasin said dry bulk market conditions in 2027 are expected to remain supported by longer-haul commodity trades and continuing inefficiencies across global shipping networks.
Geopolitical developments, El Niño and weather-related disruptions, and shifting seaborne trade patterns are expected to continue to support tonne-mile demand.
Seaborne dry bulk demand and minor bulk demand are forecast to grow by approximately 3.0% and 3.1% in 2027 respectively. Overall dry bulk net fleet growth is estimated to increase to 4.4% but minor bulk net fleet growth is estimated to be lower at 3.8% in 2027.
Strong longhaul Atlantic-to-Asia trade flows also supported tonne-mile demand, enabling the market to absorb manageable net fleet growth of approximately 4% for 2026 according to Clarksons Research forecast. Minor bulk trade volumes were lower year-on-year during the third quarter, while tonne-mile demand remained broadly stable.
Stronger metal ore shipments were offset by weaker volumes across certain other commodities, particularly fertiliser, as reduced exports from the Arabian Gulf weighed on overall trade activity. Grain trade was more mixed.
Black Sea exports were severely disrupted by attacks on ports and merchant shipping. This was partly offset by stronger Argentine exports, supported by Argentina’s record soybean harvest earlier in 2026, and increased US and Brazilian grain shipments. Overall grain trade volumes in the first nine months of 2026 increased by about 11% year on year.
Iron ore trade recorded healthy growth, supported by increasing seaborne supply and robust Chinese demand, increasing by about 3% year on year in the first nine months of 2026 with higher volume of Chinese steel exports. Coal demand was also resilient, amid ongoing energy market disruption, but supply issues in Indonesian, Russia, and Chinese domestic mines forced some regional trade realignment.
Bauxite trade remained strong, increasing 11% year on year, supported by higher exports from Guinea as expanding production and improving transport infrastructure facilitated increased volumes.
Overall, growth in iron ore, bauxite and other long-haul commodity trades, together with shifting grain flows and continued inefficiencies in vessel deployment, supported dry bulk tonne-mile demand during the quarter.