THE US plans to seize the Strait of Hormuz and reimpose a blockade on ships entering and departing Iranian ports. It also plans to impose a 20% fee for all cargo shipped through the Strait in exchange for providing safety and security in this shipping corridor. However, these plans may have further severe consequences on supply chain operations and the global economy.
If the US imposes a 20% fee and takes a protective role, shipping companies will face uncertainty for their shipping operations due to changes in transit rules, payments, insurance, and safety guarantees. The International Maritime Organization has already disagreed with transit fees, mentioning that mandatory fees for transiting an international shipping strait have no legal basis. It means the fee could trigger legal and diplomatic disputes and contribute to further uncertainty for global shipping operations.
The US blockade of Iranian-linked vessels may not make the Strait safer immediately, but it could make commercial ships more exposed to military confrontation, inspections, rerouting, or delays. This increases risks for vessels, crew members, shipowners and insurers.
Iran may argue that it also has the right to impose tolls if the US charges a cargo fee. Several reports indicate that Iran has previously demanded tolls or route coordination in the Strait. Therefore, a US fee may create an opportunity for Iran to respond with further fees and restrictions.
This further conflict in the Strait may force shipping companies to delay their return to normal operations. They may wait for legal clarity, security guarantees, insurance coverage, naval escort arrangements, and stable shipping activities. This means supply chain recovery operations could be slower and take much longer than expected.
Due to additional rules and security requirements, vessels passing the Strait could face longer queues, inspections, rerouting, or slower navigation through designated corridors. Because the Strait of Hormuz has limited practical alternatives for much of the region’s oil and LNG exports, even small delays can create significant upstream backlogs and downstream shortages along the supply chain.
This long-lasting shipping disruption and additional uncertainties would affect crude oil and LNG flows from Middle Eastern countries, which rely heavily on the Strait for exports. Before the closure, about 20% of global energy needs passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This blockade and cargo fee could tighten energy supply globally, particularly in Asian countries and other dependent countries, including Australia. It means global oil shortages could continue for a longer period.
Since February 2026, the Strait has been effectively closed multiple times. The repeated cycles of closures and additional shipping fees could make this Strait more unreliable for normal shipping operations. It seems that it is not a major single disruption. It becomes persistent and repeated. This could create a new level of instability around the Strait in the foreseeable future.
Many countries and businesses are using multiple strategies, such as alternative sourcing, strategic reserve, and longer-term shipping arrangements, to mitigate the impacts. Accordingly, the oil supply chain network has been reconfiguring its operations since the beginning of the war. However, because the Strait is vital to global oil supply, full substitution is difficult and costly and could take much longer.
Oil prices may remain elevated for the foreseeable future. Shortages of oil supply, higher shipping fees and delays for managing alternative sourcing could influence increased pressure on oil prices.
Other commodity prices are likely to increase as well. Higher oil prices and shipping costs would affect supply chains across many sectors, including food and agriculture, manufacturing, and consumer goods. As sourcing, production, and transport costs increase, higher prices for finished products are expected at checkout.
Consumers may face greater cost-of-living pressure. When supply chain costs increase, businesses are likely to pass the additional costs on to consumers. This would further intensify the existing cost-of-living pressure for everyday consumers.
Inflation and broader economic pressures may worsen. If energy, shipping, and commodity prices rise simultaneously, the consumer price index is likely to increase, contributing to elevated inflationary pressure. Gradually, this may also affect interest rates, consumer buying power, and overall economic performance.