AUSTRALIA’S rail industry is expected to deliver an average of $14.2 billion in construction and maintenance work each year over the next decade, according to the Australian Rail Procurement Pipeline Annual Report 2026, released by the Australasian Railway Association (ARA).
The report forecasts total rail construction and maintenance activity will reach $15.7 billion in 2026–27, following an estimated $16.2 billion in 2025–26. While activity is moderating from recent record highs, the outlook remains significantly above historical levels, supported by major passenger and freight rail projects and rising maintenance demand.
ARA chief executive officer Caroline Wilkie said the findings highlighted both the strength of the current pipeline and the importance of maintaining long‑term investment certainty.
“Australia continues to have a substantial pipeline of rail infrastructure investment, with major projects supporting jobs, economic activity and industry growth across the country,” Ms Wilkie said.
“While we are seeing a moderation in activity following several years of record investment, the outlook remains strong. The task now is to ensure long‑term construction and maintenance planning is in place to maximise the benefits of projects already delivered and ensure we continue to expand the network to meet growing demand.”
Major projects including Sydney Metro West, Melbourne’s Suburban Rail Loop East and Airport Rail Link, Queensland’s Cross River Rail, The Wave, and Logan and Gold Coast Faster Rail are expected to drive construction activity over the next five years.
Maintenance activity is also set to grow, with annual expenditure forecast to rise from $2.6 billion in 2025–26 to $3 billion by 2035–36 as networks expand and ageing assets require renewal.
However, the report notes the forward construction pipeline is smaller than previously forecast, reflecting the cancellation, deferral or rescheduling of several major projects and increasing pressure on government budgets.
Ms Wilkie said the shifting investment cycle reinforced the need for a stable, coordinated approach to infrastructure planning.
“Rail infrastructure projects require significant investment in people, equipment, technology and manufacturing capability, often years before construction begins,” she said.
“Industry needs confidence in the long‑term pipeline to make these investments and build the capacity needed to deliver Australia’s future transport infrastructure.”
She said fluctuating investment created challenges for businesses making decisions about retaining skilled workers, expanding operations and investing in new capabilities.
“Long‑term planning and investment certainty will help the industry improve productivity, strengthen local supply chains and build the skilled workforce needed for the future.”
Australia’s growing population, increasing freight task and decarbonisation priorities would continue to drive demand for rail investment well beyond the current construction cycle, Ms Wilkie said.
The report, developed by Oxford Economics Australia, provides a detailed national and state‑by‑state outlook for rail construction and maintenance activity to 2035–36, along with information on major infrastructure projects and rollingstock procurement.