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TRADE LAW: Trade 2040 - navigating turbulence

Written by Andrew Hudson | Aug 17, 2026, 10:00:00 PM

THE INTERNATIONAL supply chain has been subject to some serious recent challenges including the insolvency of a major shipping line, the COVID-19 pandemic, closures of shipping channels and a series of armed conflicts including the current and continuing conflict between the US and Iran. The tariff measures of the second Trump administration have managed to create significant additional uncertainty and risk. Countries have retaliated against those tariffs making the impact of those Trump tariffs even more significant. Other countries have been emboldened to adopt measures reflecting protectionism and national interest.

These developments have coincided with a perceived decrease in support for the multilateral rules–based trading system. While the perception that the World Trade Organisation (WTO) no longer has value is far from correct, the fundamental principles and operation of the WTO still support fair international trade and the WTO still represents the primary international body in trade, even though all parties (including the WTO itself) recognise that some changes need to be made.

Managing Australia’s trade in difficult times

Since WWII, Australia has become an active participant in the quest to liberalise international trade, both for its own interests and on the basis that it is in the best interests of all parties. By way of example, those efforts can be seen in Australia’s leadership of the Cairns Group (a coalition of 20 agricultural exporting countries that work together with the WTO) and in the completion of negotiations for free trade agreements with Australia’s major trading parties, albeit that the Australia – EU FTA is only likely to come into effect towards the end of 2027.

Austrade and DFAT initiatives

Australia’s reliance on free and fair trade has meant that significant disruptions to trade and increased complexity to trade have an adverse effect on the trading environment for exporters and importers, and their service providers. Both the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and Austrade have been taking steps to assist those involved in trade.

Austrade has provided its Go Global Toolkit for many years and very recently has responded to trade disruption by establishing its Trade Diversification Network (TDN) and the Trade Resilience Service (TRS) to deliver the Accessing New Markets Initiative (ANMI). The International Forwarders and Customs Brokers Association of Australia (IFCBAA) is assisting Austrade with the TRS, and I am delighted to be part of the IFCBAA team which is contributing to the TRS. The ANMI, TDN and TRS are extremely valuable and timely services in these times of disruption and uncertainty.

Since WWII, Australia has become an active participant in the quest to liberalise international trade, both for its own interests and on the basis that it is in the best interests of all parties

DFAT has also been engaged in significant efforts to mitigate the consequences of the current issues with trade including diplomatic engagement with Australia’s trading partners such as the bilateral agreement to guarantee mutual energy security. That agreement provides that Australia will supply Singapore with LNG to power its energy grid while Singapore refines and supplies Australia with essential transport fuels such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel.

Release of the Trade 2040 Report

DFAT had also established a Trade 2040 Taskforce three years ago with a view to developing a guideline to managing the current situation and setting Australia’s trade agenda into the near future. On 26 June 2026, DFAT released the report from the Taskforce entitled Towards 2040: Navigating Australia’s Trading Future at a function at Parliament House featuring a speech by trade minister Don Farrell.

The report is worthy of extensive consideration as it provides both a useful summary of recent trade statistics and recommendations as to the basis on which Australian trade policy should be undertaken into the near future.

The substance of the report starts with an assessment of the value of international trade and investment to Australia as $1.3 trillion in 2025. Clearly this is a significant result and a very useful response to those who would favour closing borders and adopting more protectionist economic policies.

In his media release associated with the report, the minister referred to Australia’s current approach to trade both for Australia and globally as follows.

We can be confident in Australia’s approach, which is guided by five principles: First, free and open markets are essential to Australia’s prosperity. Second, world trade should be governed by rules, not by power alone. Third, we will maximise cooperation with international partners and take a good faith approach to our trade negotiations. Fourth, we won’t leave those affected behind – Australian business, workers or the broader community. And finally, we won’t compromise on our fundamental values and interests.

The seven pillars of trade

Those five guiding principles have then informed the development by the taskforce of 'seven pillars of trade' which will also guide trade policy into the future. Those ‘seven pillars' are set out as follows in the report together with associated explanations.

  1. Trade diversification and economic security;

  2. Trade and investment opportunities in the net zero transition;

  3. Free trade agreements, regionalism and beyond;

  4. Invested: Australia’s Southeast Asia Economic Strategy to 2040;
  5. Inclusive and fair trade;
  6. The rules–based multilateral trading system;
  7. AI and digital trade.

The pillars reflect the existing Australian approach but add some more detail on specific issues of interest to the international trading community in Australia such as the need for diversification and security in trade, the development of further trade agreements and the adoption of AI and digital trade. Of particular interest is the recognition of the importance of “inclusive and fair trade” to reflect the adoption of broader measures which do not address purely financial outcomes. One of the examples of “inclusive and fair trade” can be found in the international adoption of measures aimed at reducing or eliminating “modern slavery” and “forced labour”. Australia is also advancing its measures against such trade reflected in the media release by Attorney–General, Michelle Rowland on 16 July 2026.

That release referred to the intention for Australia to amend Australia’s modern slavery laws with a new criminal offence where companies with an annual consolidated revenue over $100M fail to prevent modern slavery in their supply chains, subject to a defence if the company demonstrates that they took reasonable steps to prevent modern slavery.

There is no doubt that such companies will place similar obligations on all companies in their supply chains regardless of size. That will place additional obligations on those in the supply chain. The media release also refers to the intention of government to introduce civil penalties and associated enforcement powers to address non–compliance with existing obligations under the Modern Slavery Act.

We will watch developments with interest and alert readers to those developments. After all, trade never sleeps, it will just look different.