Currency volatility and higher shipping costs shape as headwinds for Australian pulse exporters, a report prepared for Rabobank says.
The Australian pulse export market is made up of chickpeas, beans, lentils, lupins and peas.
The report, prepared by the bank’s RaboResearch division, referred to global trade tensions, with China imposing a 100 percent import tariff on Canadian peas and India applying a 10 per cent import tariff on imports of lentils and chickpeas.
Report author and RaboResearch senior grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia said “Australia appears to be in a strong position” despite a complex new trade environment.
“India’s demand for Australian pulses remains robust, and many other key export markets are not involved in the current trade conflicts,” he said, noting the burden of Chinese pulse tariffs fell primarily on Canada, one of Australia’s main competitors.
“China’s decision is likely to pressure pea prices, a market in which Australia has a small role. In 2024, peas accounted for less than three per cent of Australia’s total pulse exports by volume,” Mr Pistoia said.
The report predicted that US tariffs would have a minor impact on the global pulse trade, there could be a knock-on economic impact.
“The inflationary effects of these tariffs could dampen global demand for pulses, as many importing countries also have trade surpluses with the US,” Mr Pistoia said.
“Additionally, proposed shipping fees could further affect pulse markets by increasing shipping costs into 2026, particularly for containers.”
Mr Pistoia said India appeared to have inadequate pulse supplies to replenish its stocks, placing Australian exporters in a favourable position.
“With the new-season Indian crops entering the system, close monitoring of international prices and domestic production will be crucial to gauge India’s demand for the second half of 2025,” he said.
“One of the main reasons for the Indian government to implement import tariffs is to balance out farmgate prices and food inflation.”
RaboResearch expects to see “a significant increase” in Indian pulse imports in the 2024/25 financial year, driven by increased demand from a growing population, both in numbers and wealth.
Mr Pistoia said total Indian pulse imports could reach 6.7 million tonnes in 2024/25, a substantial rise of 52 per cent year-on-year.
“This surge is mainly due to local production problems following dry growing conditions in previous years,” he said.
Mr Pistoia said a US proposal to implement shipping fees on Chinese-built and operated vessels could impact the pulse market.
“If implemented, these fees on Chinese-built and operated vessels are expected to reshuffle vessel availability and increase costs globally, particularly for containers,” he said.
Australia is said to be in a better position regarding the shipping of pulses as compared with the recent La Nina years, with more exportable surplus than exporting capacity.
“Consequently, for the season ahead, Australia is likely to be less affected by potential increases in shipping costs compared to other countries,” he said.
