GROWTH rates for Australian agricultural exports are tipped to slow during 2026, due in part to the changing dynamics of global trade.
That was the view of the latest quarterly agricultural report, prepared by Australian banking giant Westpac.
According to authors Sian Fenner and Justin Smirk, Australian agriculture exports recorded “very solid growth in 2025”, primarily driven by record beef exports.
“In 2026, export volumes are expected to moderate as domestic supply tightens, with lower meat export volumes offsetting a stronger outlook for grain,” the authors wrote.
“That said, global trade policy settings remain a key uncertainty. We expect low US domestic supply will mean recent tariff reductions on Brazilian meat are unlikely to materially affect demand.”
The report expects lower beef exports to China.
“China’s new safeguard tariff rate quota, capping Australia’s beef exports in 2026 to 205million tonnes with a 55% tariff above that level, will lead to sharply lower exports to China,” the report states.
“That said, volumes are likely to be redirected to other Asian markets. This rerouting, combined with increased supply from Brazil and Argentina, is expected to ease export prices from last year’s record highs.”
A move by China to cut tariffs on Canadian canola from 80% to around 15% from 1 March is also expected to influence trade.
“This could cap any meaningful resumption in Australian exports to China,” the report states.
The report notes real farm GDP rose 9.6% in 2025 with momentum having eased in the second half of 2025.
“Despite stronger than expected grain harvests, activity is expected to grow at a more moderate pace this year compared with much of 2024-25, as producers shift focus to herd rebuilding,” the report states.
The Westpac Agriculture Commodity Price Index declined 1.8% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025, with broad based falls recorded across all categories. However, after recording strong growth for much of the year the index was still up by around 7% for 2025 as a whole.
“In 2026, we expect the index to fall by an average 1.4% for the year as a whole. Meat prices are expected to remain elevated supported by strong external demand and tighter supply,” the report states.
“Dairy prices are also expected to trend lower for much of the year, amid an increase in global supply.”