CROP export volumes are set to fall by 14% in 2026–27, largely reflecting expected lower winter crop production, the latest commodities report from the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARES) predicts.
However, high carry over grain stocks (particularly wheat) are expected to provide support.
In contrast, crop export prices are expected to rise (up 4%) driven by an expected fall in global production, particularly in major exporting countries which is expected to result in tighter global stocks across many major crop commodities and increased demand for biofuel feedstocks because of higher fuel prices.
According to the report, the value of agricultural exports is forecast to fall 9% to $74.8bn in 2026–27, the fourth highest in nominal terms (sixth highest in real terms).
“The expected fall is being driven by both lower livestock and livestock product export value ($2.8bn lower) and a fall in crop export value (down $4.2bn),” the report stated.
“As with the forecast fall in agricultural production values, the expected 9% fall in agricultural export values in 2026–27 is largely being driven by volume.”
Livestock and livestock product export volume is expected to fall (down by 3%) reflecting weaker global demand for beef and sheep, which is expected to lead to lower export prices compared to the record levels in 2025–26.
“A weaker global macroeconomic outlook is expected to lead to limited or negative growth in household disposable incomes across key export markets, with the elevated demand seen for beef and lamb in 2025–26 forecast to ease,” the report stated.
Meanwhile the gross value of agricultural production is forecast to fall by 5% to $98.3bn in 2026–27 ($104.5 billion including fisheries and forestry), the second highest result on record in nominal terms and the fifth highest in real terms.
This forecast decrease is driven by livestock and livestock products ($1.1bn lower) due to an expected fall in the value of cattle and sheep slaughter and lower crop production value ($4.5bn lower).
A drier seasonal outlook and high fertiliser prices are expected to weigh on average winter crop yields, resulting in lower crop production.
National planting of winter crops has been impacted by soil moisture availability and high input costs, resulting in an expected year-on-year fall in area planted.
The Middle East conflict has also caused significant disruption to the global supply of liquid fuels and fertiliser.
Read the full report here.