EXPORT growth across Australia’s key avocado markets of China, Singapore and Malaysia will be critical in ensuring a fair price for growers, a report from Rabobank says.
The Rabobank Global Avocado Update 2025 says global avocado exports are expanding rapidly, even as Australia experienced a dip in production with the 2024/25 local crop estimated to be down 15 per cent.
Australian production is forecast to rebound to record volumes, however, with predictions of a harvest of around 170,000 metric tonnes in 2025/26.
Queensland is Australia's premier avocado state and China previously has been identified as an important market.
RaboResearch analyst Anna Drake said while Australian avocado production was expected to rebound next year, longer term, the production growth rate was likely to slow.
The report said while Australian avocado export volumes remained “flat” in 2024, export prices improved for growers, up 13 per cent year-on-year to AUD 5.18/kg.
“Export volumes to the major destinations of China, Singapore and Malaysia remained almost unchanged year-on-year, while those to India increased sharply after improvements in market access,” Ms Drake said.
Ms Drake said Australian avocado exports had shown impressive growth during the past five years, with 10 to 15 per cent of production volumes now moving into export channels.
RaboResearch senior horticulture analyst David Magaña said North America had seen a significant increase in avocado demand growth in the past two decades, led by marketing campaigns.
“We estimate global avocado exports will surpass three million metric tonnes by 2026/27, a significant increase from one million metric tons in 2012/13,” Mr Magaña said.
“This massive growth is the result of increasing exports from the current top three avocado exporters – Mexico, Peru and Colombia – accounting for about two-thirds of global exports.”
Globally, avocado export volumes are growing rapidly, RaboResearch said, driven by increased production and diversification of exporting countries.
“Amid this rise of new suppliers, seasonal oversupply in certain markets is a concern that will require continued demand creation and marketing strategies,” it said.
RaboResearch expects global avocado exports to continue to expand in the next few seasons.