HIGHER wheat, barley and horticulture export volumes is tipped to increase the value of Australian crop exports during the 2025-26 financial year, according to analysts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
ABARES has just released its report for December quarter.
The value of Australian crop exports is forecast to increase by 1% to $41.9 billion in 2025–26, mostly due to higher export volumes.
Increased export volumes are expected to be partially offset by lower prices.
“Lower export prices for wheat, barley and sorghum are a result of lower international prices as global production and subsequent stocks increase,” ABARES stated.
“Grain export values are forecast to rise by 9% in 2025–26 to $14.8bn despite lower export prices, driven by robust exportable supply of wheat, barley and canola.”
Wheat export value is forecast to rise by 16% to $10bn as consecutive years of above average production continues to support elevated export volumes.
Pulse export values are forecast to fall by 16% to $3.4 billion in 2025–26 but remain well above average.
“The reinstatement of import tariffs on lentils and chickpeas of 10% by India has weighed on export volume and value,” ABARES stated.
“However, Australian exports continue to be supported by ongoing demand from Bangladesh, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates.”
Canola export value is forecast to fall by 6% to $4.6 billion in 2025–26 but remain 38% above the 10-year average in real terms.
The forecast fall in value reflects lower Australian exports on a financial year basis, with marketing year (Nov-Oct) export value expected to increase.
According to ABARES, industrial crop export values are forecast to fall by 7% to $7.5bn in 2025–26.
Cotton export value is predicted to fall by 8% to $3.1 billion in 2025–26, reflecting lower export prices and falling volumes.
The sugar export value is forecast to rise by 7% to $2.2 billion in 2025–26, reflecting increased export volume.
Wine export values are expected to fall to $2.2bn in 2025–26.
The return of the Chinese market is predicted to be a boost for wine exports.
Horticulture export values are forecast to rise by 5% to $4.4bn in 2025–26.