January air cargoes soar, but China’s e-commerce exports return to Earth with a thud

AN EARLIER Lunar New Year has been labelled a factor in strong demand for global air cargo during January 2026, industry analysts Xeneta say.

Xeneta noted storm clouds on the horizon, however, with the first year-on-year fall in e-commerce exports from China since January 2022.

The year began with “unexpected vigour” with a +7% year-on-year boost in demand and an easing of recent freight rate declines.

“The growth in global chargeable weight in the opening month of 2026 was the strongest increase since January 2025, and ahead of the +5% year-on-year growth in capacity supply,” Xeneta stated.

Chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw said the upbeat air cargo market in January needed to be “tempered with a dose of reality”.

“Asia is such a big exporter of airfreight, it is difficult to draw any conclusions on what the market is signalling in January because of the Lunar New Year and the fluctuations it causes,” he said.

“In 2025, the festivities began on 28 January but this year, they begin on 15 January, so much of January’s strength in air cargo volumes is likely calendar-related rather than a clear indicator of improvements in underlying demand.”

He said the picture for global air cargo spot rates in January might be a truer reflection of world economic events.

“While the outlook for demand and air cargo rates is unlikely to become clearer until the end of the first quarter, one undeniable fact certain to influence air freight volumes is the drop-off in e-commerce volumes ex China and Hong Kong,” Mr van de Wouw said.

For an air cargo market “turbocharged by cross-border e-commerce since late 2023”, this was a trend airline and freight forwarders would be closely monitoring.

Mr Van de Wouw said the trend had become apparent late last year.

“In October, we said air cargo’s e-commerce growth engine was showing signs of slowing down, but that this could be just a blip.

“We saw this again in November, and we said if it happened for a third consecutive month in December, this would signal a trend. This is now the situation,” he said.

“If it remains flat or declines further, it will certainly affect many organisations’ growth plans, including those with commitments tor freighter conversions that will be relying on the high level of e-commerce demand we have seen in recent years.”  

He said developments in ocean container shipping remained a wildcard, notably the Red Sea/Suez situation.

Since late last year, major carriers such as CMA CGM — and more recently Maersk — have been testing Suez Canal routings on selected sailings.