SUPPLY chain shock caused by the war in the Middle East is expected to see shipper long-term rates rise between 5% and 15% for the 2026 calendar year, freight analyst Xeneta says.
Xeneta has published the Air Freight Outlook 2026 Mid-Year Update, adjusting the full-year 2026 forecast issued in December 2025.
According to the report, shipper long-term rates were set to fall 5% to 10% in full-year 2026, however those rates are now expected to rise 5% to 15%, driven mostly by the supply chain shock caused by the war that began in February and remains ongoing, albeit with pauses in the fighting.
Xeneta also now forecasts full-year demand growth toward the higher end of the 2% to 3% range published in December 2025, while capacity growth is expected toward the lower end of a revised 2% to 3% range.
Escalation of the war on 28 February removed 12% of global air cargo capacity overnight.
Demand grew 4% during the same period, ahead of the original 2% to 3% forecast for the 2026 full year.
Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw said in February he would have “bet on the Netherlands winning the World Cup before I put money on air rates jumping 40%”.
“Yet that is what happened, with global spot rates up around 40% year-on-year in May. Spot rates are now plateauing, but they are not falling,” he said.
“Demand keeps defying gravity. Despite everything thrown at it, the market has still moved more volume than last year – the engine just keeps running and it is quite remarkable.
Mr Van de Wouw said shippers should expect demand growth to ease during the second half, while supply continued its recovery.
“As the two converge, the market fundamentals look set to tilt back in the shipper's favour, but we have been here before, so take nothing for granted,” he said.
Mr Van de Wouw said 2026 was another example of air freight proving its worth.
“While ocean services are only just starting to trickle through Strait of Hormuz, air freight charters were back operational within days,” he said.
“Air freight cannot control its own destiny, but it responds fast and can achieve the speed and resilience in a way other modes simply cannot.”
Mr Van de Wouw said the geo-political climate should act as warning for potential further shocks.
“On 27 February nobody would have envisioned what came the next day. Dubai Airport under missile attack was unimaginable, but it happened,” he said.
“If Dubai can be closed by rockets, what else is possible? There will be another wildcard and, just like the Middle East conflict, it will come at a cost for shippers. Those with live data and intelligence will navigate the next shock most effectively,” Mr van de Wouw said.