DEMAND for Australian agricultural exports remains resilient, despite US tariffs and uncertainty around inflation and global trade policy, according to the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARES).
ABARES has just released its agricultural commodities report for the 2025 September quarter, forecasting agricultural production to rise by $685 million to $94.7 billion in 2025–26, the highest result recorded.
This increase is expected to be driven by livestock and livestock products.
According to ABARES, “uncertainty around inflation and global trade policy [are expected] to weigh on the global economic outlook for 2025–26”.
“Despite US tariffs and deals, demand for Australian agricultural exports remain resilient,” the authors wrote.
“The Australian dollar is expected to remain low in 2025–26, supporting export competitiveness.”
Domestic demand is expected to rise marginally in 2025–26.
“Resilient growth despite uncertainty global economic growth is expected to be subdued but steady in 2025 and 2026 as global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty continue to increase,” the authors wrote.
ABARES noted the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) July 2025 outlook forecast world gross domestic product (GDP) growth was expected to fall from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.0% in 2025 before rising to 3.1% in 2026.
But the authors also noted global growth expectations were slightly higher than in the June commodities report, reflecting the front loading of purchases in anticipation of higher tariffs, lower average effective US tariffs than announced in April, a weaker US dollar and fiscal expansion in some countries.
“Despite the moderating inflation environment, there is a risk that trade disruptions could result in higher import prices and consumer inflation globally,” ABARES reported.
“This risk has not materialised to date as significant increases to US imports in the first half of 2025—potentially to buffer domestic supply chains ahead of tariff implementation—has provided US companies with adequate stocks to avoid passing tariffs on to consumers,” ABARES reported.
“In addition, China has been able to redirect exports that typically would be destined for the United States to other markets, placing downward pressure on import prices in those countries.”
National Farmers Federation president David Jochinke said despite farmers had held “a steady hand”, despite the impact of droughts, floods and global trade disruptions.
“The lift is largely underpinned by strong livestock prices, but credit must be given to calm approach by the government and industry on the tariff turbulence.
Mr Jochinke said with the 2030 Roadmap goal within reach, now was the time for smart policy to get the sector over the line.
“We need to seize opportunities in front of us, like the EU FTA, ensuring they deliver meaningful market access for Australian agriculture,” he said.
“This will be a smart move toward value-adding and market diversification.”