NEW research highlights contrasting fortunes for dry bulk shipping as Black Sea disruption and changing trade routes change global freight demand.
Panamax bulkers have emerged as the principal losers from changing global grain trade patterns, while smaller Supramax and Handysize vessels have benefited from the redistribution of wheat and corn shipments, according to new research from international shipbroker IFCHOR GALBRAITHS (IG).
The analysis shows Panamax wheat and corn shipping demand fell by 27.65 billion tonne-miles in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the average for the corresponding quarters of 2023–2025.
This represents a reduction equivalent to about 1.4% of the segment's total third-quarter dry bulk demand.
By contrast, Supramax vessels gained 10.15 billion tonne-miles, equivalent to about 0.6% of total segment demand, while Handysize vessels recorded an increase of 1.53 billion tonne-miles, or 0.2%.
IG's research shows that reduced Russian and Ukrainian wheat and corn shipments eliminated 30.63 billion tonne-miles of shipping demand during the quarter.
Alternative suppliers, notably Argentina, the US and Canada, recorded substantial gains. Argentine exports generated an additional 28.72 billion tonne-miles.
Argentina's increased exports were said to be particularly supportive of geared bulkers.
IG senior analyst Serena Piazzo said the changing geography of global grain trade was creating “very different conditions for different parts of the dry bulk fleet".
"Although disruption to Black Sea exports has encouraged greater reliance on alternative suppliers, particularly in the Americas, the benefits have not been evenly distributed," Ms Piazzo said.
"Supramax and Handysize vessels have gained from changing cargo flows and longer voyages on certain routes. Panamax vessels, however, have been particularly exposed to weaker Brazilian corn exports and a reduction in average voyage distances.
"It demonstrates that the impact of trade disruption on freight markets depends not simply on how far commodities travel, but also on the availability of cargoes and the types of vessels employed."
Despite increased activity on some alternative trade routes, IG had calculated that global wheat and corn shipping demand fell by 15.98 billion tonne-miles.
The reduction is equivalent to about 0.2% of total global dry bulk tonne-mile demand across all commodities.
The findings are said to show how changes in agricultural production, export competitiveness and trading patterns can produce markedly different outcomes across the dry bulk fleet.