SHIPPING and freight sector players are preparing for significant disruption as conflict in the Middle East erupted over the weekend.
Iran has launched missile attacks on US assets in the Gulf, a response from the Islamic Republic to earlier bombing raids by the US and Israel.
Several incidents involving shipping already have been reported, including on the tanker Skylight near the coast of Oman, with four seafarers sustaining injuries.
Media reports indicated the vessel was flagged in Palau. A statement from the Palau Ship Registry said the ship was removed from its registry in January this year.
While no Australia-bound container services come through the Middle East or vice versa, industry figures noted it was still “hugely disruptive to transshipment cargo”.
For air cargo, key global hubs, including Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, are reported to have experienced shutdowns, while for sea freight, heightened security risks across key maritime corridors—including the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea / Suez Canal—have triggered emergency responses by container shipping lines.
IFCBAA manager freight and logistics Russell Coleman said the conflict had caused all major ocean carriers to suspend bookings and re-route vessels that were intended for the Persian Gulf Area.
He noted Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM had introduced immediate war risk surcharges over USD 1500/TEU which applied to all bookings made from Monday 2 March, also affecting cargo already on the water.
“For Australian business that might have shipped cargo ex Australia in January or February but has not yet arrived, they may be hit with this surcharge,” Mr Coleman said.
“This might cause significant angst if companies must recover this cost from their trading partner.”
Mr Coleman said Middle East airlines such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar had had to suspend all flights due to the closure of airspace in the region.
“Once their services return, we can anticipate a spike in their rates to all areas,” he said.
“For the parties who are impacted by this, we suggest that they keep in contact with the carriers to ensure that any changes to their cargo that is enroute, they are made aware of this immediately so they can in turn update their trading partner.
“They can follow tracking on carrier websites as delays to cargo will occur.”
General manager, freight & policy operations for the Freight & Trade Alliance, Tom Jensen, said the Middle East remained an important trade and logistics partner, the two-way trade with the United Arab Emirates (for example) being A$12.7 billion.
“The operational impacts are clear — reduced air cargo capacity through hub closures, extended sea freight routings and increased schedule volatility,” Mr Jensen said.
“What is hitting Australian importers and exporters immediately is cost. Carrier surcharges already announced since the major escalation over recent days run into the thousands of US dollars per container and, in some cases, may apply to cargo already committed. For high volume traders, these are significant, unplanned costs,” he said.
“Where surcharge notices reference exclusions tied to regulated frameworks overseas, it reinforces the question of whether Australia’s current settings provide adequate transparency and commercial certainty for cargo owners.”
The FTA has reported carrier actions including:
MSC instructing vessels in the Gulf region and those en route to proceed to designated shelter areas, while suspending new bookings to the Middle East until further notice.
CMA CGM instructing vessels inside or bound for the Gulf to proceed to shelter and suspending Suez Canal transits, with affected services rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope.
Maersk diverting impacted services away from the Suez Canal and around Africa on affected trade lanes.
“These measures are extending transit times, increasing fuel and operating costs, and adding further volatility to already strained global shipping schedules,” Mr Jensen said.
He said the FTA/APSA was concerned by the growing use of extraordinary surcharges imposed at short notice, including in circumstances where cargo may already be in transit, calling for greater transparency for cargo owners.
Maritime lawyer Alison Cusack said shippers would do well to “start triaging their cargo operations into detained, delayed, detoured, and disrupted”.
“The back of the bill of lading has never been so important (nor has your marine insurance coverage),” Ms Cusack said.
“For those whose cargo operations eschew the Gulf, but rely heavily on transshipment ports, you're about to get competition for space from rerouting, just as we saw with the Suez Canal blockage in 2021 and then again with the Red Sea Crisis.”
World Shipping Council president and chief executive Joe Kramek said freedom of navigation must be observed and “the safety of seafarers is paramount”.
“The recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East is causing disruption to global liner shipping, with many carriers pausing or rerouting services,” he said.
“Ocean carriers are making operational decisions based on the best available information and their individual risk assessments.”
Mr Kramek said when services were suspended or diverted, the impact was not limited to the immediate area, with longer voyages and changes to network rotations leading to delays and scheduling adjustments across connected trades routes.
Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said the conflict would likely see the further weaponisation of trade and shatter hopes of a largescale return of container shipping to the Red Sea in 2026.
“Carriers had been returning selected east-west ocean container services to transits via Suez Canal in recent months after sailing around Cape of Good Hope since late 2023 due to attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militia in the Red Sea region.
“If Houthi militia resume attacks, as now seems likely, carriers will reverse the decision to return services to the Red Sea and prioritise the safety of crew, ship and cargo.
“Carriers are on ‘red alert’ and we have seen signs of them pre-empting this security deterioration in the Middle East, notably with CMA CGM last month reversing a decision to return its FAL1, FAL3 and MEX to the Red Sea.”
Lecturer at the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (University of Wollongong) Prakash Gopal, said the implications of the conflict were severe, with shipping companies voluntarily suspending transit of the Strait of Hormuz, even without it being officially closed by Iran.
“With several US naval ships also operating in the confined waters with promulgated exclusion zones, the threat from friendly fire is also quite significant,” he said.
Dr Gopal said the conflict was likely to impact commercial shipping in the Red Sea, even as this waterway was returning to life following conflicts last year.
He noted the energy implications, with Australia importing more than 90% of its fuel, the biggest source of these refined products being India, Singapore and South Korea, all of whom relied upon crude oil from the Middle East.
“As the supply of refined product reduces in coming days, Australia will start feeling the squeeze, and we should probably expect an increase in prices of petroleum products.
“This of course will also put pressure on other commodities, which does not augur well for the general cost of living issues that we face here,” he said.
Dr Gopal said the conflict could impact Australian fertiliser stocks.
“About a third of the world’s fertiliser supply is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Any medium or long-term disruption to shipping there will have adverse impacts for Australian farmers and agriculture,” he said.