RESEARCH from freight giant DHL says the artificial intelligence boom has become “a powerful driver of global trade”, exceeding tariffs and geopolitical shocks as a factor.
The DHL Globalization Tracker was prepared by DHL and New York University’s Stern School of Business.
The report shows global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the COVID-19 rebound.
A major driver was said to be strong demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment.
Trade in AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, and this share rose to 76% during the first quarter of 2026, according to WTO and OECD analysis.
“The biggest story in global trade right now is AI – not tariffs,” said DHL Express chief executive John Pearson.
“Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time.
“DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains. Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving.”
The Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz were said to have disrupted important trade routes while U.S. tariffs reached their highest levels in decades.
Looking ahead, global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029.
“The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war,” said Professor Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management.
“The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognize the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient. The AI trade boom highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialized producers work together across countries.
“It also shows how companies continually adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts.”
Among all regions, East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth.
The value of its trade rose 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Europe followed with 12% and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%.
East Asia and the Pacific not only recorded the strongest growth, but also saw a larger share of its trade stay within the region. This share increased from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026. Strong Asian supply chains serving the AI boom contributed to this increase.
The report tracked the broader development of globalization based on international flows of trade, capital, information and people. It uses a scale from 0% (no cross-border flows) to 100% (borders and distance have no impact). In 2025, globalization reached a record level of 25.8%, supported in part by AI-related trade and investment.