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AUSTRALIA is 30-days from a systemic maritime collapse warns one experienced seafarer.
Following the 28 February blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the three-to-four-week transit time from Asian refining hubs creates a physical supply void in mid-April.
Because marine fuel oil (MFO/VLSFO) is excluded from the Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO), our sovereign maritime lifelines are currently "uninsured" against this imminent gap.
The $11.5B RTM Conveyor: The four Australian-crewed vessels—RTM Wakamatha, Weipa, Piiramu, and Twarra — move ~8.94 million tonnes of bauxite annually. If they run dry, bauxite feed to Gladstone ceases, leading to the permanent freezing of the Boyne Smelter — an irreversible $26 billion economic loss.
Tasmanian Freight Bridge: Tasmania is 99% sea-dependent. MFO failure results in state-wide retail and medical stock-outs within seven days.
The "silent pipeline" (agriculture and construction): Failure to bunker coastal bulkers in April prevents the movement of one million tonnes of fertiliser to Adelaide and Geelong, compromising the 2026 winter crop. Coastal movement of cement/clinker from SA to the mainland will also cease, halting the $36B construction sector.
Modern refineries (Geelong/Lytton) are designed to "crack" heavy residue into petrol, leaving only a 3–7% yield for MFO. In a crisis, refiners will continue to "crack" this residue for higher margin petrol unless legally directed otherwise. We are currently prioritising "shops over ships".
I raise this matter to ensure the government addresses these triggers before it is too late. For too long, non-seafarers have discounted the wisdom of those who run the ships.
To prevent industrial collapse, the Minister must exercise the following powers under the Liquid Fuel Emergency Act 1984 (Cth):
Compel domestic refineries to preserve heavy residue for maritime lifelines, accepting a necessary 20–25% drop in mainland passenger petrol.
Legally designate the RTM fleet, the Bass Strait bridge, and critical fertiliser/cement carriers as Priority 1 Essential Users to prevent their fuel being diverted to non-essential road transport.
Strategic Requisition (Sections 18 & 19): Prepare to redirect or "impound" private diesel and MFO imports from multi-nationals (e.g., Rio Tinto Singapore) to serve the national interest.