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Posted by Industry Opinion
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24 March, 2026
This article is submitted by a reader. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Daily Cargo News.
AUSTRALIA could be as little as 30-days from a systemic maritime collapse warns one experienced seafarer.
Following the 28 February blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the three-to-four-week transit time from Asian refining hubs creates a physical supply void in mid-April.
Because marine fuel oil (MFO/VLSFO) is excluded from the Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO), our sovereign maritime lifelines are currently significantly exposed to this imminent gap.
Critical industrial and regional arteries
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The $11.5B RTM Conveyor: The four Australian-crewed vessels—RTM Wakamatha, Weipa, Piiramu, and Twarra — move ~8.94 million tonnes of bauxite annually. If they run dry, bauxite feed to Gladstone ceases, potentially halting the Boyne Smelter and causing substantial economic loss (estimated at tens of billions of dollars).
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Tasmanian Freight Bridge: Tasmania is 99% sea-dependent. MFO failure could lead to widespread retail and medical stock shortages within about a week.
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The "silent pipeline" (agriculture and construction): Failure to bunker coastal bulkers in April could prevent the movement of around one million tonnes of fertiliser to Adelaide and Geelong, which would compromise the 2026 winter crop. Coastal movement of cement/clinker from SA to the mainland, in this instance, would also potentially cease, halting the construction sector - estimated to be worth tens of billions of dollars.
Technical reality: The “bottom of the barrel”
Modern refineries (Geelong/Lytton) are designed to "crack" heavy residue into petrol, leaving only a 3–7% yield for MFO. In a crisis, refiners will continue to "crack" this residue for higher margin petrol unless legally directed otherwise. We are currently in danger of prioritising "shops over ships".
The human cost: A total constructive loss
I raise this matter to ensure the government addresses these triggers before it is too late. For too long, non-seafarers have discounted the wisdom of those who run the ships.
Minister must act
To prevent industrial collapse, the Minister must exercise the following powers under the Liquid Fuel Emergency Act 1984 (Cth):
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Compel domestic refineries to preserve heavy residue for maritime lifelines, accepting a necessary 20–25% drop in mainland passenger petrol.
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Legally designate the RTM fleet, the Bass Strait bridge, and critical fertiliser/cement carriers as Priority 1 Essential Users to prevent their fuel being diverted to non-essential road transport.
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Strategic Requisition (Sections 18 & 19): Prepare to redirect or "impound" private diesel and MFO imports from multi-nationals (e.g., Rio Tinto Singapore) to serve the national interest.
Publisher's Note: We have been asked why we are affording the shield of anonymity to the author of the following. DCN has checked their bona fides and accepts that for professional reasons their identity should not be disclosed. We have also consulted industry contacts regarding the issues raised, who indicated these are matters of active consideration within the sector. As the voice of Australian shipping, DCN welcomes further contributions on this topic.
