AIR CARGO proved surprisingly robust last year but “something has to give” in the year ahead, industry analysts Xeneta say.
Global volumes were up 6% year-on-year in December, however, “flatlining e-commerce shipments” from China suggest areas of concern.
According to Xeneta, better-than-expected volumes during the last quarter of the year helped air cargo record 4% growth in chargeable weight year-on-year, reflecting many shippers’ willingness to shift from other modes.
Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw, said 2025 had “something for everyone”.
“Everybody had some doom and gloom about 2025 when the US started announcing tariffs, but the uncertainty helped airfreight,” Mr van de Wouw said.
He said the market held up better than many expected as trade patterns shifted, buffeted by the return of Trump tariffs and de minimis bans for e-commerce shipments, and the fading boost from Red Sea-related ocean freight diversions.
“But with many questions remaining over trade, and geopolitical tension adding a further layer of uncertainty, I personally think something has to give in 2026 from a volume perspective—and that means there’s going to be more in it for shippers in terms of lower rates,” he said.
Mr van de Wouw said one of the tailwinds for air cargo demand growth in 2025 came from investment linked to the development of artificial intelligence solutions.
“This supported flows of high-value goods and is expected to continue,” he said.
“In contrast, the less buoyant forward-looking signals for e-commerce, particularly Chinese cross-border e-commerce exports, are worrying.”
China–EU e-commerce volumes continued to grow, but “less briskly”, expanding +29% in November. This is down from the +47% recorded in October.
Policy is now also impacting from China, with China’s State Council introducing new rules on tax information reporting by online platforms.
International cross-border e-commerce is expected to face a more regulated landscape across many fronts.
The US and the EU are leading the charge, but countries including Japan and Thailand have also discussed or announced new rules commencing in fiscal 2026.
“China’s cross-border e-commerce volumes were flat in October and November. If we see a third consecutive month of lower e-commerce growth out of China, that is a big signal – while duties imposed by other countries may present more unwelcome news for the air cargo market going forward," Mr van de Wouw said.
“Air cargo’s e-commerce volumes are also likely to be impacted by declining consumer purchasing power as they face higher prices for more essential everyday items, making consumers more mindful of how they spend their money.”
Market fundamentals point downwards
Mr van de Wouw said the volatile nature of trade and world affairs meant any sign of crisis might help airfreight, but, until then, he saw the market fundamentals pointing downwards.
“When I look at the biggest risks this year, right now I would say it’s more likely we will see something that will put a stopper on the level of airfreight growth we have seen in the last two years,” he said.
“Overall, the market has been relatively stable, but we are entering a phase when shippers will be looking for better rates and demand may deteriorate in the first quarter of the year.”