INCREASING volumes through the Suez Canal are set to jolt the ocean freight market in 2026, DHL Global Forwarding says.
The company has just published reports into the ocean and air freight sectors, including a full analysis.
DHL Global Forwarding chief executive Niki Frank said for ocean shippers, “all eyes are back on the Suez Canal” which could soon welcome more container vessels.
“As a start, CMA CGM and several regional operators are operating limited, primarily backhaul services through the Red Sea and Suez Canal into the Mediterranean,” Mr Frank said.
“This could jolt a market that has been held aloft by transits around southern Africa, which had resulted in port congestion and swallowed around 10-15% of effective global container shipping capacity in 2025.”
According to the report, nominal fleet capacity is forecast to grow by 4% in 2026, down from 7% in 2025.
Effective capacity, however, reduced by congestion and detours, is expected to rise faster as movement along the Suez Canal resumes.
“A full-scale return of liner services to the Red Sea would initially be disruptive, with increased risks of port congestion, landside capacity constraints, and short-term cost implications," said Bjoern Schoon, senior vice president, ocean freight, DHL Global Forwarding Asia Pacific.
“However, once networks stabilise, it will benefit shippers through faster transit times, and the trade is likely to become more competitive on pricing.”
Mr Frank said 2026 was expected to be a year of different realities for shippers depending on mode, geography and routing.
“Shippers that embrace agility — operational and environmental — will weather the storm and emerge stronger in a market defined by resilience and responsibility,” he said.
DHL has reported global air cargo demand as remaining resilient, finishing 2025 at growth of between 3% and 5%, entering 2026 with demand that is outpacing structurally constrained capacity in several lanes.
Passenger belly-hold is reported as now accounting for 66% of total capacity, while dedicated freighter capacity is down 7% year-on-year.
While U.S. demand is reported to have stalled, Asia’s exporters have re-routed to Europe or newer, more developing markets.
Both ocean and air freight are predicted to face multiple challenges.
“In ocean freight, greater capacity is expected to shift negotiating power toward shippers. In air freight, market indicators suggest a more stable environment, with seasonal and event-driven fluctuations,” Mr Frank said.