THE AUSTRALIAN Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics predicts the value of Australian agriculture production will fall as increasing global supply and drier conditions impact farmers.

ABARES acting executive director David Galeano said the forecast for total agricultural production values in 2023-24 is $78 billion.

This is $16 billion lower than estimated production values for 2022-23 but would still be the third highest result on record.

“The gross value of production is forecast to fall in 2023-24 as drier conditions impact record-high crop production levels seen in 2022-23,” Mr Galeano said.

“In total, Australian crop production values are expected to fall by $12 billion in 2023-24. Livestock production values are also forecast to decline reflecting recent price falls.”

Mr Galeano said falling production values and incomes are also linked to declining global prices that are reflective of higher global supply.

“The past three years agriculture has seen record-breaking crop production because of higher rainfall,” he said.

“As we enter the El Niño period, we expect to see the national crop production fall from these record highs.”

Mr Galeano said crop prospects for winter crops over spring have been mixed, and planting of summer crops in 2023-24 is expected to fall, reflecting below-average rainfall and low soil moisture levels during the early planting window.

“Drier conditions and lower prices mean average broadacre farm cash incomes are forecast to fall strongly in 2023-24,” he said.

“However, the past three years of high incomes have allowed broadacre farms to build up liquid assets, which should help cushion the forecast downturn.”