INFORMING trade and investment strategy for economic recovery is the aim of a new report prepared by Austrade and the CSIRO.
The report presents the results of a joint strategic foresight study exploring changes in the global trade and investment landscape likely to occur over the coming months and years.
The report also presents a set of strategic actions for Australian governments and industries to capitalise on significant shifts in the global trade and investment landscape.
Trade and investment strategies responding to the new normal of the mid/post-COVID-19 world will boost jobs and growth plus speed up Australia’s economic recovery.
Due to the pandemic, world merchandise trade was reported to have fallen by 14.3% in the second quarter of 2020.
Global foreign direct investment is forecast to fall by 40% from $1.54 trillion in 2019 to under $1 trillion, which is lower than 2005 levels.
Further drops of 5–10% are forecast for 2021 with a rebound expected for 2022.
“These conditions are associated with a forecast 4.4% contraction of the global economy this year,” the report authors said.
“However, there are signs of recovery. The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth of 5.2% in 2021.”
The World Trade Organization noted that since May, air cargo transport has been rising along with a rise in new export orders.
Shipping container port throughput is also reported to have shown signs of “a partial recovery” and automobile sales are said to have been rising in China, the United States and Western Europe.
The summary report can be read here.