THE latest update from Asia Pacific vice chair of research company Wood Mackenzie, Gavin Thompson, discusses China’s role in the next United Nations Climate Change Conference, taking place in Glasgow in November.

Here are some excerpts from his analysis:

In May, Alok Sharma, president of the upcoming COP26 conference, called on China to pursue its climate change commitments “with more urgency” and announce a detailed roadmap for achieving these targets ahead of the event in November. This makes perfect sense: as the world’s largest carbon emitter, it is no exaggeration to say that a successful outcome for COP26 will to a significant extent hinge on China’s willingness to commit to positive action on decarbonisation.

But therein lies the rub. When President Xi Jinping surprised the world in September 2020 by announcing that China aims to be carbon neutral by 2060, this huge ambition came without any detail on how it would be achieved. Those, including myself, who anticipated that the publication of the country’s 14th five-year plan earlier this year would provide answers were left disappointed. With COP26 rapidly approaching, China’s special envoy on climate change, Xie Zhenhua, recently announced that Beijing would release more details of its climate strategy “very soon”. The clock is ticking.

But China’s preparations for COP26 won’t simply be about how it will reduce emissions. Beijing’s COP26 preparations will certainly include details on how it plans to tackle climate change – on its terms – but will also seek to give China as much flexibility as possible in how this is achieved. And just as China will continue to push the physical and financial burden of decarbonisation onto developed countries, it will simultaneously look to emerge from COP26 as a global leader in decarbonisation. This will be supported by huge investment in virtually all clean-energy supply chains and technologies. China’s delegation will be travelling to Glasgow with very clear objectives.

With much at stake at the world’s most important talks on climate change since Paris in 2015, here’s our take on China’s top 5 “must haves” from COP26.

  1. While many have stressed that COP26 needs to go beyond just agreeing new targets for carbon emissions, a formal submission of its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by China alongside a detailed roadmap for implementation ahead of the meeting in November remains a critical step. This will formally bind China to its earlier ambitions of reaching peak carbon by 2030 at the latest and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Beijing now appears ready to take this step.
  2. China has been clear from the outset that it will chart its own course towards net zero. And why not? China has consistently met its stated targets, including renewable energy deployment and carbon intensity reduction goals. As a developing country, China’s leadership has stressed that it is developed nations that must do more, while it requires flexibility in meeting long-term targets. President Xi’s announcement of a 2060 target rather than the mid-century timeline for limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees set by the 2015 Paris Agreement illustrates this.
  3. China will come onboard with carbon pricing, but will oppose carbon border taxes. It is now ramping up the pace of its climate change mitigation policies to meet its carbon goals. A key part of this was the launch of the Emissions Trading System (ETS) in July and other policies targeting energy-intensive industries.
  4. Largest carbon emitter or not, China’s position has long been that the primary responsibility to reduce global emissions rests with rich countries: you broke it, you fix it. This stance is not without justification but also comes with potential economic benefits to China.
  5. China will continue to position itself as the global leader on climate change at COP26. The timing of China’s 2060 carbon neutrality target announced in September last year was pure realpolitik. With the Trump administration hanging a situation vacant sign over global leadership on tackling climate change, China saw an opportunity to fill the role.

At COP26, China will continue its step-up in climate change leadership, but will face a far different US president. With the Biden administration pursuing a radically different approach to its predecessor, China will need to work harder to build a genuine leadership position. This should encourage bolder policies on carbon and technology, as without these, China’s reputation and global standing could be eroded by US ambition.