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Posted by Caroline Tung
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3 December, 2025
THE AUSTRALIAN Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has released its latest forecast, with the agriculture industry on track to reach $100 billion for FY2025.
National winter crop production is expected to increase by 10% to 66.3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2025–26, the second largest winter crop on record.
This was despite less-than-favourable conditions in parts of southeastern Australia that experienced a drier than expected spring season, according to the report.
Summer crop production is expected to fall but remain above average.
Wheat, barley and canola were the top agri-commodities, with production numbers coming in at 35.6Mt, 15.7Mt and 7.2Mt respectively.
Agriculture minister Julie Collins said it had been a significant year for farmers.
“Thanks to their hard work, innovation and commitment to excellence, the value of our agriculture industry is on track to reach almost $100 billion this financial year,” she said.
“Our commitment to working with farmers to progress their priorities and to deliver support when they are facing challenges, particularly during drought conditions, never stops.”
The December quarter report forecasts the gross value of agricultural production will rise to $99.5 billion throughout the 2025 financial year and more than $106.4 billion including the value of fisheries and forestry.
Winter crop production by state
- Queensland is forecast to fall by 1% to 3.7milliont tonnes in 2025–26, and if realised, will be the second highest on record. This is 64% above the 10-year average to 2024–25 of 2.3 million tonnes.
- New South Wales is forecast to fall 10% to 18.3 Mt in 2025–26, the fourth highest on record.
- Victoria is forecast to increase by 17% to 9.1 Mt in 2025–26. This is up 3% from the September quart and is now 11% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.
- South Australia is forecast to rise by 63% to 8.7m tonnes in 2025–26.
- Western Australia is forecast to rise by 14% to 26.2 million tonnes in 2025–26, just below the previous record set in 2022–23.
Summer crop production by state
- Queensland is forecast to fall by 9% to 2.3 Mt in 2025–26. This remains 31% above the 10-year average to 2024–25.
- New South Wales is forecast to fall by 22% to 2 Mt in 2025–26
Exports are forecast to reach a record $83.9 billion during the same period due to ongoing demand for Australian agriculture fisheries and forestry products, the report said.
The federal government’s resumed trade with China, estimated at $20 billion, has also strengthened demand.
