THE latest research from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has found that anti-dumping duties have seriously disrupted Australia’s wine trade.
The report, Australian wine in China: Impact of China’s anti-dumping duties, investigates the short- to medium-term consequences of China’s punitive anti-dumping measures on Australian wine exports.
ABARES executive director Dr Jared Greenville said China’s anti-dumping duties – ranging from 116% to 218% – will cause China’s imports of bottled wine from Australia to cease entirely.
“We expect that only 60% of wine destined for China will find a place in our other existing markets by 2025, unless we make the effort to find alternative markets or do things differently,” Dr Greenville said.
While Australia exports wine to over 100 countries, the Chinese market was the largest in both export and volume for bottled wine, accounting for 40% of export value share and 24% of export volume share.
“Without growing existing markets or finding new ones, the export value of Australian wine in 2025 is expected to be $480m lower. The total cost of the anti-dumping measures could be at least $2.4bn over a five-year period,” Dr Greenville said.
For wine grape growers, the loss of production would be $67m annually. This represents annual losses of $11m in the Riverina, $11m for the Victoria-North West region, $23m for South Australia-South East region, and $21m for growers everywhere else.
“This isn’t to spell doom and gloom; it’s an outcome that can be avoided if we look at finding other markets for Australian wine or find ways to generate more value from our wine sold into existing markets.
“The Australian wine industry is resilient, and industry bodies and businesses have already had success in diverting to other markets.
“Since the beginning of the year, Australian wine exporters have managed to redirect around 30% of the wine destined for China. They’re well on the way,” Dr Greenville said.
