OPINION: Changing tides and navigating 2026

AS AUSTRALIA and New Zealand resume normal trading cadence following the southern summer, global trade divergence has become more pronounced, increasingly sidelining the United States.

January delivered some genuinely positive macro signals, most notably the conclusion of a long-anticipated trade agreement between the European Union and India after nearly two decades of negotiation, a deal expected to liberalise goods and services across markets representing roughly a quarter of global GDP.

Yet, alongside these shifting trade relationships, demand is softening. Volumes are falling ahead of the Chinese New Year, grow the expectations have slowed from around 5.5% in 2025 to a projected 1.8% in 2026,and major carriers are reporting losses and cutting headcount. These are not isolated data points. They highlight a market already gearing up for a shift in routing conditions, including a possible return of Suez transits and a quick release of capacity, confirming the tide has fundamentally changed.

Carriers attempted to push through seasonal rate increases ahead of the Chinese New Year but were unable to sustain them. This is a clear signal that market power has shifted. With vessel scrapping near a 20-year low and the orderbook still elevated, excess capacity remains a structural risk as we move into 2026.

Early Suez backhaul transits are already shortening roundtrips, adding fresh downside pressure as capacity begins to re-emerge. In Oceania, capacity remained ample into January as weather disruptions eased and congestion improved, while softer import demand kept utilisation modest across the Asia–Australia and Asia–New Zealand trades, suggesting a greater downside risk than upside as 2026 unfolds.

Capacity remained ample into January as weather disruptions eased and congestion improved, while softer import demand kept utilisation modest across Asia–Australia and Asia–New Zealand trades. From February 2026, MSC’s new Eagle service adds a direct U.S. East Coast–Australia/New Zealand connection, improving routing options but also reinforcing already elevated capacity levels.

Eagle’s operational design makes it particularly interesting to watch. By choosing Wellington as the first direct call from Brisbane, CentrePort significantly improves schedule reliability, reduces reliance on other NZ ports, and gives CentrePort the opportunity to nearly double its container volumes. All while offering MSC a dependable transhipment hub with connectivity into its broader regional network.

In 2025, due to trade policy uncertainty, volatility was prized over visibility. Tariffs, court rulings and shifting trade rules drove artificial surges and lulls through front-loading behaviour, thus shortening planning horizons and embedding volatility into supply chains.

In January 2026, due to concern over Greenland, trade uncertainty jumped, then quickly retreated. There is a lingering risk of disruption being priced into markets. Europe has responded strategically by accelerating diversification away from the U.S. through landmark trade agreements, while China has moved in the opposite direction, introducing targeted protection from 1 January 2026, which includes beef safeguards with a 55% tariff on out-of-quota imports and country caps that constrain Australian and NZ access (to the market).

With WTO enforcement weakened and trade rules increasingly weaponised, Australia and New Zealand face ongoing fragility in market access and rule certainty, a risk further underscored by Canadian PM Mark Carney’s rallying call for middle powers to actively secure economic and strategic agency. This all points to limited confidence in long-term sourcing, pricing, and contracting decisions through 2026.

The tide has shifted. Instead of resisting change, adapt your course to work with it in a way that suits your business. Success now depends on discipline, adaptability and investing in education that helps you and your team develop new skills: boosting mental agility and enabling you to align strategy partnerships, and people with the changing conditions ahead.

Good luck settling into another exciting year.