Navigating 2025: Trade insights from across the ditch

Peter Creeden delivered the keynote presentation at the Customs Brokers and Freight Forwarders (CBAFF) national conference in Napier, reflecting on challenges and opportunities for trade.

A freight environment unlike any we’ve known

We live in a world where the steady rules of trade have disappeared. Tariff policies can change overnight, maritime security is deteriorating, and the global economy is facing challenges not seen in decades. The Red Sea crisis is now in its second year, piracy is rising again in Southeast Asia, and globalisation is giving way to fragmentation. The World Bank now forecasts global growth at just 2.5% through 2027, the weakest outlook since the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC).

For New Zealand, with its economy struggling with low productivity and high interest rates, these challenges are not just disruptions but also opportunities. The key is to build resilience through structure: smarter systems, deeper talent pools, and stronger industry coordination.

Ireland vs New Zealand: A tale of two strategies

I drew a comparison between Ireland and New Zealand, two smart island nations with very different trajectories. In the 1980s, their export performance was similar. Today, Ireland’s exports exceed 120% of GDP, while New Zealand’s remain at around 30%. Ireland built an export-first national strategy anchored by policy, tax and digital infrastructure. New Zealand, by contrast, has yet to leverage its proximity to the booming Indo-Pacific in the same way. The message is clear: we don’t have a problem of geography, we have a platform opportunity. If Ireland can utilise its proximity to Europe, New Zealand can leverage its proximity to Asia. But this requires coordinated action across customs, logistics and digital systems to reduce friction and attract investment.

The importance of culture

My career with Hamburg Süd taught me the importance of culture. The company operated under what I call the upside-down pyramid model: frontline teams at the top, middle managers who enabled rather than controlled, and executives who provided clarity and support. This lesson is more relevant than ever. As we enter a digitalised era, talent will determine who thrives into the 2030s. CBAFF members have the chance to reset and rebuild around people, investing in education, partnerships, and sustainability.

The Barbell Challenge

The forwarding industry is now confronting what I term the Barbell Challenge, to either scale up or specialise. Major companies are consolidating, exemplified by DSV’s acquisition of DB Schenker, while smaller firms need to develop niche expertise. Those caught in the middle will face the greatest pressure from digitalisation. Success in either approach still depends on people being armed with the right tools, systems, and the capability to oversee AI agents that are progressively taking on operational tasks.

This Barbell dynamic is not just theoretical; it is already reshaping the industry. Global forwarders are investing in integrated digital platforms and end-to-end visibility, while highly specialised firms are thriving by owning narrow but deep expertise in areas such as cold chain, pharma logistics, or Pacific Island trade lanes. For mid-sized operators, the danger lies in being too large to be nimble, yet too small to achieve true scale.

Without a clear strategy to either expand or specialise, these companies risk being hollowed out as clients demand more transparency, compliance, and digital maturity. Looking ahead, the industry is preparing for a tough global shipping environment in 2026, characterised by weaker worldwide growth, new carbon pricing policies and ongoing geopolitical disruptions. This increases the urgency of the barbell challenge. Forwarders will need to demonstrate not only operational ability but also strategic resilience showing customers and partners that they can provide stability in an unpredictable world.

Technology and the wake-up Call of eBLs

Technology will be the defining challenge and opportunity for forwarders. We are entering an age where humans will work alongside AI agents, and where operations teams must shift from performing work to managing systems. This requires cultural change. HR and IT can no longer operate in silos. Managers must become capability builders, and frontline teams must be empowered with the right tools and visibility. The clearest signal of change is the push for electronic Bills of Lading (eBLs). The Digital Container Shipping Association and the world’s top 25 shipping lines have set a global target of 100% adoption by 2030. Progress is already visible: in China, eBL usage has reached nearly 30%, demonstrating both the feasibility and inevitability of this transformation.

Today, less than 4% of bills are electronic, highlighting a broader challenge of operating in a digital ecosystem. eBLs mark a shift in trade financing, tracking and security, transforming how capital flows through global supply chains with faster, transparent and trusted finance. Adoption requires collaboration among forwarders, brokers, banks, governments and shippers. Falling behind risks exclusion from emerging digital trade corridors, so it is vital for future competitiveness that we begin to make the necessary changes to accommodate this shift.

ESG and collective resilience

Sustainability has become a key aspect of business, now often a mandatory requirement for many RFQs. With the upcoming MEPC meeting about the adoption of carbon pricing measures by the IMO in 2027, forwarders need to be capable of measuring, reporting and advising clients on emissions in addition to considering costs and timings. As regulations become more stringent, carbon emissions will incur costs, ESG metrics will influence contractual terms and market access will increasingly rely on proven sustainability performance. ESG should be viewed as an opportunity for growth rather than a compliance burden, demanding skilled professionals who can interpret data to inform strategic decisions.

Lead the shift

This conference reminded us that the decisions we make now will define our relevance in the decade ahead. We can cling to paper, hierarchy, and legacy thinking, or we can lead with talent, technology and trust. For New Zealand’s freight community, resilience will be built not only on systems alone, but also on the people and partnerships that drive them. That was my message in Napier and it remains my call to action today: act with clarity, collaborate with conviction, and prepare our people to navigate uncertainty, not avoid it.