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Posted by Allen Newton
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1 June, 2026
Export volumes are expected to fall sharply this year with ABC reporting suggesting shipments could drop from 145,000 head last year to between 50,000 and 100,000 head.
The slowdown has prompted some in the industry to suggest the trade is effectively winding down ahead of the formal 2028 deadline, with boxed‑meat demand accelerating the transition.
The federal government confirmed in May 2024 that the live sheep export trade will end in 2028, following a four‑year transition period. The announcement triggered uncertainty across the WA supply chain, with exporters, producers and transport operators warning of reduced investment and declining forward contracts.
WA supplies around 85–90% of Australia’s live sheep exports, making the state disproportionately affected by the phase‑out. The industry has also been managing a multi‑year contraction in flock size, driven by dry seasons, low wool prices, and producers shifting into cropping.
At the same time, Middle Eastern markets have been steadily increasing their intake of boxed sheepmeat, supported by improved cold‑chain logistics and changing consumer preferences. Several key markets — including the UAE, Qatar and Jordan — have expanded chilled and frozen imports, reducing reliance on live shipments.
The combination of policy uncertainty, shrinking supply, high domestic slaughter prices, and growing boxed‑meat demand has accelerated the structural shift away from live export, with industry observers noting that the trade appears to be winding down faster than anticipated.
