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Posted by Amanda Bradfield
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22 January, 2026
BRITNEY Spears once sang, “Don’t you know that you’re toxic?” With the year getting off to an unpredictable start, experts are already warning the outlook could be toxic for carriers and the broader supply chain.
Such uncertainty created by Trump’s economic policy is causing analysts to say that they can only predict one thing with confidence .. their forecasting will be wrong. With tariffs flipping on and off and geopolitical risks spilling beyond trade, even seasoned market watchers are struggling to gauge demand.
In a market once guided by predictable peak seasons, planning now feels like flipping a coin, especially ahead of Chinese New Year, when mixed demand signals leave carriers unsure how much pre (and post!) holiday cargo will actually materialise.
Globally, carriers will no doubt be scrambling to adjust to uncertain demand. While more containership capacity was ordered last year than ever before, actual fleet growth in 2026 is expected at around 3%, roughly matching projected demand and leaving little room for error.
Looking ahead, analysts expect scrapping to be a major focus as carriers confront structural overcapacity. As of December 2025, about 4% of the global fleet, roughly 1.3m TEU, was 25 years or older, firmly within the retirement window. The gradual unwinding of Red Sea diversions only reinforces the need to cut capacity.
Speaking of the Red Sea, a full return to normal routing is unlikely to be straightforward, as this week’s developments show. Carriers may take a hybrid approach, sending lower value cargo on return legs via the Suez while keeping higher value shipments on safer or alternative routes.
If there’s one takeaway so far, it’s that the market knows it’s toxic, but this is an industry well practised at adjusting course and adapting as conditions evolve.
So, what else is happening out there?
💠Qube hit by TWU protests over pay and conditions
💠DP World Callao passes 2m TEU, tops South America’s west coast
💠MSC to co-develop Libya’s largest container port
💠China–Europe freight trains kick off year with surge in departures
💠Pilbara Ports smash throughput record in December 2025
💠Tecon Santos boosts capacity with delivery of 10 new cranes
💠Port of Long Beach targets 20m containers by 2050
💠Egypt opens first semi-automated container terminal at Sokhna
💠HMM deploys AI-powered autonomous navigation across fleet
💠ONE rolls out inland trucking in Thailand
💠Tianjin terminal rolls out green equipment
Here’s a shot of the vessel Singapore. She’s had a few name changes and was previously known as YM Singapore and Norasia Atria. This vessel operates on OOCL’s AWX service and is a regular caller at Fremantle. With a name that’s also a port, it can be a little confusing!
Wishing everyone in Australia a great long weekend, Happy Australia Day!
