Agricultural export values tipped to hit record high

THE value of Australian agricultural exports is tipped to reach a record high in nominal terms, rising by $3.1 billion to $78.9 billion in 2025–26, the latest ABARES report forecasts.

According to ABARES, the expected 4% rise in agricultural export values in 2025–26 is being driven by prices.

Livestock and livestock product export prices are expected to rise (up by 13%) reflecting strong global demand for beef and sheep.

Average export prices for beef and sheep meat are tipped to rise by less than domestic livestock prices in 2025–26 as restocker momentum adds to domestic saleyard demand, alongside robust processor demand.

According to ABARES, livestock and livestock product export volumes are forecast to fall by 5% in line with expected lower livestock slaughter.

“This follows from red meat export volumes growing steadily over the last three years, driven by rising production and strong demand from the United States, China, Japan and emerging markets in the Middle East,” ABARES stated.

Livestock and livestock product gross values were forecast to rise by $5.5bn in 2025–26 to $46bn, driven by higher livestock and livestock product prices.

Prices have been buoyed by sustained strong global red meat demand and domestic restocking activity.

“By contrast livestock and livestock product production volumes are expected to fall (down 4%), as elevated turn-off in recent years has reduced livestock available for slaughter,” ABARES stated.

Cattle and calf prices are expected to fall slightly while higher prices more than offset lower production volumes for both lamb and mutton.

“ABARES predicted livestock and livestock product export volumes are forecast to fall by 5% in line with expected lower livestock slaughter,” it stated.

“This follows from red meat export volumes growing steadily over the last three years, driven by rising production and strong demand from the United States, China, Japan and emerging markets in the Middle East.”

According to ABARES, global economic growth was expected to be “subdued but steady” over 2025 and 2026 at 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, consistent with expectations for other key economic indicators.

“Trade patterns have continued to adjust to higher US tariffs with demand in many countries increasing in the first half of 2025,” ABARES stated.

“The IMF attributes much of this growth to temporary factors such as the front-loading of trade and investment and expansionary fiscal policies. It is expected that as these factors fade growth and labour markets will begin to soften globally.”