OPINION: Holding course through a fragile calm

RECENT weeks in global shipping has delivered a rare moment of stability, but it is a stability that feels thin, temporary and deceptively calm. Spot rates stabilised after a prolonged decline, aided by GRIs and carriers withdrawing capacity across several major east–west corridors. The Drewry World Container Index even posted modest week-on-week gains after falling for seventeen consecutive weeks. On the surface, it looks like the market is finding a floor. Beneath that surface, the pressure continues to build.

Rates, schedules, and the broader macroenvironment are oscillating rather than stabilising, and the few positive signals we’ve seen are fragile at best. Despite modest increases in the Drewry WCI during late October, the improvements are shallow and uneven. SCFI spot rates surged post–Golden Week, only to correct sharply in early November. NYFI data shows a similar story: thin demand, sporadic bursts of cargo activation, and spot rates influenced more by shipper timing than structural tightness.

Europe-bound volumes are behaving differently, with NEMO’s eighteenth ship offering temporary reliability gains for Australian exporters, but broader congestion in North Europe remains an ongoing threat. The tariff narrative has shifted dramatically since early October. On 30 October, the U.S. and China announced a partial trade de-escalation, including:

• a pause of the USTR port fees for one year
• a suspension of several retaliatory Chinese vessel fees
• a reduction in the fentanyl tariff from 20% to 10%
• temporary relaxation of certain export controls and Section 301 exclusions

This does not end the trade war. It simply freezes one dimension of it. Many provisions expire on November 10, 2026, forcing another round of negotiations and opening another window of uncertainty. U.S. Supreme Court hearings have also raised questions about the legality of tariffs imposed under IEEPA emergency powers.

The pause in tariffs has had immediate behavioural effects. Imports into the U.S. fell sharply in September (-6.6%) as earlier front-loading unwound. Now, with tariff relief in place, carriers are watching for a potential surge in volume as shippers advance purchases—effectively pulling the Lunar New Year rush forward.

NYFI data this week suggests some shippers have already resumed booking in anticipation of more stable cost structures. But the risk of reversal remains high. Statements from Beijing and Washington differ materially on the details of the agreement, and the one-year timeline all but guarantees renewed friction.

Overcapacity continues to characterise the market, and with more newbuilds nearing delivery, the gap between supply and demand is expected to grow. In October, the addition of the 18th vessel to the MSC/CMA CGM NEMO service aimed to improve reliability on the Australia–Europe route. This change helped mitigate disruptions caused by port congestion in Europe and provided a somewhat more stable foundation for Australian exporters. However, it also highlights the continued strain on the global supply network.

This is why cost discipline matters now more than ever. Organisations that treat cost control as a strategic discipline, rather than a reactive measure, will be the ones who shape their own outcomes. The pressures today are not driven by major shocks but by small, accumulating frictions and the hidden costs of extended variability.

Navigating these effectively requires not just sharper processes, but stronger people. Agility and capability are becoming the industry’s strongest differentiators. As regulation deepens, ESG reporting matures, and digital processes become central to trade facilitation, the ability of teams to interpret, anticipate, and communicate risk will determine performance. For those in New South Wales, the state government’s Learn the Basics of AI for Free program is a timely resource, helping build digital confidence and decision-making strength across the organisation in a landscape where data, automation, and compliance increasingly intersect.

But none of this will happen by accident. The next phase of global trade will reward organisations that pair disciplined cost control with strong, capable teams that stay close to their customers and that prepare for volatility before it strikes.

Calm is not the same as secure. The systems around us are still fragile. Holding course through this environment requires clarity, capability, and commitment. The operators who build those foundations now will be the ones who set the pace when the next wave arrives.