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Posted by Dale Crisp
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10 Nov, 2026
THE RO-RO capacity gap continues to grow as Chinese vehicle manufacturers' production outpaces shipping capacity, Wallenius Wilhelmsen reported in its third-quarter market briefing.
The Oslo-based company sees an increasingly tight freight and charter market despite fleet growth, noting that orders placed today are unlikely to be delivered before 2030, possibly later. Ordering activity has picked up — orders for 49 vessels were placed in Q3 — and now accounts for ~26% of the current fleet. Twelve PCTCs are still due for delivery this year.
Assumptions underpinning Wallenius Wilhelmsen's projections include a capacity deficit of 3 million units at the end of 2026; incremental exports coming from China, with exports from the rest of Asia remaining stable; capacity expansion based on expected deliveries (4.5 voyages/year); extra vessel orders assumed in 2029 and 2030; and no recycling in the period.
In Q3 2026, Wallenius Wilhelmsen saw shipping services revenue hit USD1,078 million, with adjusted EBITDA sitting at USD355 million, up 19% on the previous quarter but down on Q3 2025's USD409 million. Logistics services revenue was USD274 million and EBITDA was slightly down at USD45 million, while government services revenues reached USD113 million, boosting EBITDA by 47% to USD38 million.
The company said there was a seasonal decline in Q3 volumes as ex-West volumes were down. HMG volumes, negatively impacted by strike effects, were replaced by other volumes ex-Asia in the quarter. The combined share of volume accounted for by High and Heavy and breakbulk increased both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year — nominal volumes continue to improve slowly.
Wallenius Wilhelmsen said the majority of its shipping capacity for 2027–2029 would be contracted by year-end, at rates reflecting current market conditions.
Since the quarter's end Wallenius Wilhelmsen has signed two major contracts totalling USD1.7 billion: one with a leading equipment manufacturer, split into USD950 million for shipping services and USD100 million for logistics services; and the other with an Asian OEM for USD700 million for shipping services. Both contracts are for three years.
