Air shippers reluctant to commit to long-term capacity, Xeneta says

GLOBAL air freight volumes delivered a month of “steady growth” in September, but shippers remain cautious of long-term capacity commitments, industry analysts Xeneta say.

September’s demand increase continued the upward trend seen in August and July, when volumes rose +6% and +5%, slowing anticipated rate reductions.

Global air cargo spot rates averaged USD 3.10 per kg in September, +27% higher than the same month last year.

Year-on-year volume growth in September said to have outpaced the increase in capacity, which rose +2% versus a year ago.

According to Xeneta, a significant change was how freight capacity was being bought by shippers.

Analysis of new contracts valid starting from the  2026 third quarter shows 60% were for three months or less, compared with 25% in the 2025 third quarter and 47% in the 2026 second quarter.

Contracts of more than 12 months were reported to have all but disappeared, at 3%.

Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw, said shippers were increasingly looking for ‘floating mechanisms’ with a base rate that was adjusted depending on marketplace developments.

“There remains a lot of instability and that’s making it almost impossible for shippers to make long-term capacity deals without having T&Cs in place to deal with these volatile conditions,” he said.

“A one-year fixed rate deal doesn’t fit the current conditions. Shippers are looking to build mechanisms which add flexibility to their commercial relationships with forwarders, and which will help to ensure they hold across the year.”

Mr van de Wouw said one-year deals without adjustment mechanisms were becoming the exception rather than the rule.

China–Europe e-commerce exports still falling

Meanwhile analysis of the latest China Customs Data showed China’s low-value and e-commerce exports to Europe fell in August, down -40% year-on-year.

This was a steeper decline than July’s -25% as the EU’s €3 per item customs duty, introduced on 1 July, continues to take effect.

E-commerce exports to the US, by contrast, were +17% higher year-on-year in August, continuing their recovery from the removal of the US de minimis threshold in 2025, albeit from a lowered base.

Mr van de Wouw said he expected shippers to aim for a fairer way to manage market changes.

“The high percentage of short-term, three-month deals we are recording is one of the current mechanisms shippers are using while they take time to negotiate what they see as a fairer way to buy capacity,” he said.

He said they had detected no signals of a strong peak season in the fourth quarter, but one wildcard was on the water, arguing ocean schedule reliability had never recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

Red Sea disruption, compounded by port congestion delaying container releases, had pushed Asia to US west coast ocean rates back towards pandemic-era highs.

“When ocean becomes this unreliable and this expensive, some volume moves to air.

“We are not yet seeing that in the September data, and it doesn’t change our view of a muted peak season, but it is the factor we are watching most closely,” Mr van de Wouw said.

He said shifting trade policy, such as the recent partial easing of China–US tariffs, added a further layer of uncertainty.