Hapag lifts guidance as ZIM buy falters

GERMANY’s Hapag-Lloyd is growing more and more bullish about its earnings outlook despite facing a new round of hurdles in its ‘agreed’ takeover of Israel’s ZIM Integrated Shipping Services.

In a brief market update earlier this week Hapag said that due to continued strong market demand and the ongoing positive development of spot freight rates, the executive board of Hapag-Lloyd AG had further raised its earnings outlook for financial year 2026.

Group EBITDA is now expected to be in the range of USD 3.9 to 4.4 billion (previously: USD 2.7 to 3.7 bn) and Group EBIT in the range of USD 1.25 to 1.75 bn (previously: USD 0.1 to 1.1 bn). In Euro, this corresponds to an expected Group EBITDA of EUR 3.4 to 3.8 bn (previously: EUR 2.3 to 3.2 bn) and Group EBIT of EUR 1.1 to 1.5 bn (previously: EUR 0.1 to 1.0 bn).

“Against the backdrop of volatile freight rates and persistent geopolitical challenges, the forecast is subject to a high degree of uncertainty,” the board said.

As Vespucci Marine’s Lars Jensen noted, “Back in March when they issued their 2025 annual report the expectation for 2026 was USD 1.1-3.1 bn, indicating just how much the market has changed in the past six months compared to the expectations in [northern] spring.”

However, the USD 4.2 billion ZIM buy, first announced in February, has been accruing increasing dissent in Israel, led by unions and certain government ministers, and it seems a revised offer put forward by Hapag and its local partner FIMI has already been knocked back.

Israeli financial media says the Government Companies Authority has ended its review of the original transaction structures, leading to the Finance Ministry formally recommending the deal not proceed in its current form.

Splash 24/7 reported overnight that the Prime Minister’s Office has separately raised concerns that the smaller Israeli-controlled operation envisaged under the deal would remain operationally dependent on Hapag-Lloyd despite being owned by FIMI: “That is a significant setback for Hapag-Lloyd, which only last week submitted a substantially revised framework designed to overcome Israel’s security objections.”

The sweetened proposal retained the $35-per-share price, valuing ZIM at USD 4.2 bn, but offered ZIM Israel a direct Far East service, stronger protections around Israel’s golden share, additional Israeli seafarers, local vessel management expertise and access to Hapag-Lloyd’s global fleet. The Israeli operation would control 16 ships.

Splash reported on Monday that ZIM’s workers had already rejected those concessions, arguing that 16 ships were insufficient to guarantee Israel’s maritime independence during a crisis.

Hapag CEO Rolf Habben-Jansen, who visited Israel 23 September to promote the revised deal, said the company remained convinced the concept was sound and was prepared to make further adjustments in response to government concerns.

Analysts say the strategic rationale remains substantial; the combination of Hapag and ZIM would result in a fleet of more than 400 ships of over 3 million TEU capacity and strengthen Hapag as as the world’s fifth-largest container line.