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Posted by David Sexton
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30 June, 2026
EVOLVING Chinese export policy and the potential return of Iranian product are key factors in the international fertiliser trade, a key industry entity says.
The Australian Fertilizer Corporation has just released an update, noting global fertiliser markets remained heavily influenced by geopolitics, shifting trade flows and seasonal demand patterns.
“The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz removes one major source of market anxiety,” said AFC chief executive Stein Haugan.
“However, evolving Chinese export policy and the potential return of Iranian product suggest volatility is likely to remain elevated.
“AFC expects urea prices to continue easing over the coming weeks as supply normalises and seasonal demand weakens.”
The reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is said to have provided the market with its first meaningful sign of normalisation, with about 500,000 tonnes of urea reported to have transited the Strait in recent days.
It should be noted that the situation in the Persian Gulf remains unstable, with fighting in the region occurring this week.
According to the AFC, China continued to add uncertainty.
While exports to India are reported to have “effectively resumed”, China's administered export floor prices remained above prevailing international buying interest, limiting trade volumes.
Thin buying interest was reported to have left India as the only consistently liquid import market after its recent tender securing about 1.7m tonnes.
“The longer-term wildcard remains Iran. With approximately nine million tonnes of annual urea production capacity, any meaningful easing of international sanctions would materially reshape global nitrogen trade flows,” Mr Haugan said.
“Greater market transparency would undoubtedly benefit buyers through increased competition, although access to international banking and trade finance remains a significant unknown that could continue to restrict participation.”
Affordability pressures were said to be influencing farm purchasing decisions worldwide.
Growers in Australia were reported to be continuing seeking ways to reduce reliance on imported nitrogen as commodity prices remained under pressure.
