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Posted by Industry Opinion
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24 March, 2026
This article is submitted by a reader. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Daily Cargo News.
AUSTRALIA is 30-days from a systemic maritime collapse warns one experienced seafarer.
Following the 28 February blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the three-to-four-week transit time from Asian refining hubs creates a physical supply void in mid-April.
Because marine fuel oil (MFO/VLSFO) is excluded from the Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO), our sovereign maritime lifelines are currently "uninsured" against this imminent gap.
Critical industrial and regional arteries
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The $11.5B RTM Conveyor: The four Australian-crewed vessels—RTM Wakamatha, Weipa, Piiramu, and Twarra — move ~8.94 million tonnes of bauxite annually. If they run dry, bauxite feed to Gladstone ceases, leading to the permanent freezing of the Boyne Smelter — an irreversible $26 billion economic loss.
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Tasmanian Freight Bridge: Tasmania is 99% sea-dependent. MFO failure results in state-wide retail and medical stock-outs within seven days.
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The "silent pipeline" (agriculture and construction): Failure to bunker coastal bulkers in April prevents the movement of one million tonnes of fertiliser to Adelaide and Geelong, compromising the 2026 winter crop. Coastal movement of cement/clinker from SA to the mainland will also cease, halting the $36B construction sector.
Technical reality: The “bottom of the barrel”
Modern refineries (Geelong/Lytton) are designed to "crack" heavy residue into petrol, leaving only a 3–7% yield for MFO. In a crisis, refiners will continue to "crack" this residue for higher margin petrol unless legally directed otherwise. We are currently prioritising "shops over ships".
The human cost: A total constructive loss
I raise this matter to ensure the government addresses these triggers before it is too late. For too long, non-seafarers have discounted the wisdom of those who run the ships.
Minister must act
To prevent industrial collapse, the Minister must exercise the following powers under the Liquid Fuel Emergency Act 1984 (Cth):
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Compel domestic refineries to preserve heavy residue for maritime lifelines, accepting a necessary 20–25% drop in mainland passenger petrol.
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Legally designate the RTM fleet, the Bass Strait bridge, and critical fertiliser/cement carriers as Priority 1 Essential Users to prevent their fuel being diverted to non-essential road transport.
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Strategic Requisition (Sections 18 & 19): Prepare to redirect or "impound" private diesel and MFO imports from multi-nationals (e.g., Rio Tinto Singapore) to serve the national interest.
