Christmas boost for global air cargoes

A RISE in global air cargo volumes of 5% in November (year-on-year) has led to suggestions of Christmas having come early for the aviation sector.

But this rise in volumes was tempered with reports e-commerce growth from the past two years had slowed, according to market analysis from Xeneta. 

While demand outlook looked flat heading into the last four months of 2025, September and October’s demand levels were described as “surprisingly robust”.

The continuation of this upward trend in November kept the market on track to deliver growth more than 4% for 2025, ahead of predictions for a challenging 2026.

From northeast Asia, a redeployment of freighter capacity from the transpacific to the Asia–Europe market was said to have helped smooth overall air cargo yields across both trades.

Out of Southeast Asia, spot rates to both North America and Europe suffered double-digit declines.

Xeneta chief airfreight officer Niall van de Wouw said November market performance was better than indicators suggested earlier in the year as many traditional shippers kept to their annual shipment cycles.

“We are now seeing studies on the impact of actual implemented US tariffs and despite all the noise, the global average seems to be in the 10-12% range and not the 30, 40, 50 or 100% levels that were threatened in April,” Mr van de Wouw said.

“While the impact is there and it is unsettling for the airfreight market, it’s not as dramatic as was feared and is not yet hitting consumer demand to a concerning level.”

Mr van de Wouw said the situation was likely to change in 2026.

“Some shippers have absorbed the increases and are yet to pass on these extra costs to consumers, but with stocks running low and inventory replenishment on the horizon, we expect to see more tariff impact on air cargo volumes next year,” he said.

“US consumer confidence is reportedly starting to fall, and higher prices next year are likely to exacerbate this sentiment.”

Mr van de Wouw said the air cargo market was “busy getting through the quarter” in the fourth quarter, latest data for the industry’s demand ‘growth engine’ of the past two years is concerning.

“For e-commerce and traditional air freight, this is by no means a peak season, but it’s a busier season than looked possible a few months ago,” he said.

“But after two years in which the growth of air cargo has been so reliant on e-commerce, there is now a question mark over demand for cargo capacity in the coming year.”

Mr van de Wouw said the air cargo industry would head into the New Year with expectations of only modest, low single digit growth.

“We expect supply to grow more than demand in 2026, and that will have an impact on rates,” he said.

“I also do not think low, single-digit demand growth will satisfy the appetite and ambition of freight forwarders, especially the listed ones that need to grow much faster in the market.”